DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...118 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...25 AT 13 MILES NORTH OF WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...NORFOLK, VA 3.29 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Northeast with another moving into the Great Lakes.

It will take a few days for the troughs to leave to the east. The pattern will change later this week and weekend as a trough moves down from Alaska into the West and deepens, while a ridge starts to build across the East. The ridge will bottle up the trough for a few days next week, but the trough should pass over the top of the ridge later next week and may form a new trough on the East Coast. The ridge will then shift westward to take its place in the middle of the country with a new trough moving into Western Canada.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warmer air will build across the eastern half of the country this weekend, and then spread westward through more of the Plains and West later next week and weekend. A bigger system will be spinning in the Canadian Prairies early next week and its stretched out cold front could continue precipitation chances in the Plains and Upper Midwest throughout the week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Small disturbances will bring some areas of showers the rest of the week. But a stronger system will move in this weekend and produce more widespread heavy rain and potential severe weather. Some occasional showers could linger well into next week. While the rainfall is favorable, there could be some flooding and temperatures remain below normal. That keeps stress low, but growth slow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to be draped across the south where showers and thunderstorms have been bringing areas of heavy rain. Additional systems moving to the north continue to bring more showers to other areas of the region for the remainder of the week as well, especially in the west. While this will be favorable for summer crops, it may lead to issues for the remaining winter wheat harvest and bring quality issues. Temperatures will be cooler across the north but hotter south of that stalled front. The pattern will trend warmer and drier with only spotty rain chances for next week, causing more areas of stress.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The pattern stays active this week as a system rolls through for Wednesday and Thursday, and another goes through the south on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures remain mild, but a warm front will lift northward on Sunday with much more heat and humidity for next week. That may actually be beneficial as we are behind with growing degree days and could use some heat in some areas. The chances for rain will continue next week too, especially for some of the drier areas in the north, giving little cause for concern with the increasing temperatures, at least in the short term. Should this heat last longer than forecast, we could see stress quickly developing.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A stalled front continues to produce rain chances through Thursday, keeping soil moisture high in most of the region, but also bringing potential for flooding in some areas. Another front will move into the far north and bring showers for Friday and Saturday. The front will lift northward on Sunday and temperatures will increase while the pattern dries out. That may induce some stress if there are any dry areas out there. However, the heat may boost crop growth as well.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system left on Tuesday after bringing areas of heavy rain. Scattered showers continue the next couple of days, boosting soil moisture in the Canadian Prairies. A larger storm system will move in over the weekend with more widespread heavy rain chances well into next week. Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal for the rest of the month, causing growth to be slow. Though the temperatures would be better if they were higher, and should be in early July, the continued rainfall in the region should be overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of severe weather and flooding will be possible.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front continues scattered showers in south-central Brazil through Thursday. Some very cold air is moving into the south. Though some patchy frost will be possible, it should not impact corn areas and will have no effect on the young wheat. Though some late-planted corn could benefit from the rain, much of the crop is heading toward maturity and will not. Another front will bring some showers to the south on Sunday and Monday.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cold temperatures that have moved in may produce some frosts over the next couple of days, but would not damage the remaining mature corn and soybeans awaiting harvest, or the young vegetative winter wheat. Another front will move through this weekend, but models are unsure about how widespread showers could be. Wheat could use some more moisture for establishment.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Heat continues to spread across the continent this week, and has been extremely hot in France where temperatures have been eclipsing 100 degrees. This should have little effect on maturing wheat, but could damage summer crops significantly. Spotty showers will be possible in a few areas late this week and weekend, but relief from the heat will be tough to accomplish until maybe next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue to be frequent this week, especially in Russia. It may quiet down next week, but some areas of showers will continue. Heat will be building across Ukraine, but will have a hard time spreading to western Russia until next week. Some warmer temperatures would be preferred though for continued growth and development of both wheat and corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier conditions are forecast for the next couple of days, but a system will move through the West on Friday with scattered showers, and another will move through the northeast with showers this weekend. The western system may get showers into the southeast on Sunday or early next week, getting most areas with showers over the next 7 days or so. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or two. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. The dry effect is more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have come at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in the northeast, which likely continues into early July as well. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal south and below normal north.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal north and near to above normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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