DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...115 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...23 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...TULSA, OK 2.30 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with a disturbance in the Canadian Prairies.

Both features will continue eastward over the next couple of days. But the trailing one may stall out in the Great Lakes and continue there into the weekend. The pattern will change later this week and weekend as a trough moves down from Alaska into the West and deepens, while a ridge starts to build across the East. The ridge will bottle up the trough for a few days next week, but the trough should pass over the top of the ridge later next week. The ridge will then shift westward to take its place in the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warmer air will build across the eastern half of the country this weekend, and then spread westward through more of the Plains and West later next week and weekend. The pattern still appears to be active for the Plains with a system moving through this weekend into early next week. A warm front lifting northward through the Midwest could still be active with scattered showers and thunderstorms next week at various periods as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system spinning in the region will continue showers for Tuesday. Additional small disturbances will bring some areas of showers the rest of the week. But a stronger system will move in this weekend and produce more widespread rain and potential severe weather that could linger into next week. While the rainfall is favorable, temperatures remain below normal into next week. That keeps stress low, but growth slow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought heavy rain and severe weather to the region over the weekend. That resulted in some significant wind damage across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, unfavorable for both developing crops and wheat awaiting harvest. The front responsible will remain draped across the south where showers and thunderstorms may develop over the next couple of days. Additional systems moving to the north could bring more showers to other areas of the region for the remainder of the week as well. Temperatures will be cooler across the north but hotter south of that stalled front, creating mixed conditions for growing corn and soybeans. The pattern will trend warmer and drier with only spotty rain chances for next week, causing more areas of stress.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The pattern stays active this week as a system rolls through for Tuesday through Thursday, and another goes through on Friday and Saturday. Severe weather is not out of the question, but should be tamer this week. Temperatures should remain mild as well. However, a warm front will lift northward on Sunday with much warmer temperatures next week. That may actually be beneficial as we are behind with growing degree days and could use some heat in some areas. The chances for rain will continue next week, too, giving little cause for concern with the increasing temperatures, at least in the short term.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A stalled front continues to produce rain chances over the next several days, keeping soil moisture high in most of the region, but also bringing potential for flooding in some areas. The front will finally lift northward this weekend and temperatures will increase while the pattern dries out. That may induce some stress if there are any dry areas out there. However, the heat may boost crop growth as well.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Areas of heavy rain from the weekend continue to move through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday, while scattered showers continue afterward, boosting soil moisture in the region. A larger storm system will move in over the weekend with more widespread heavy rain chances into next week. Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal for the rest of the month, causing growth to be slow. Though the temperatures would be better if they were higher, and should be in early July, the continued rainfall in the region should be overall favorable for developing wheat and canola, though some areas of severe weather and flooding will be possible.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front continues scattered showers in south-central Brazil through Wednesday. Some very cold air is moving into the south over the next couple of days. Though some patchy frost will be possible, it should not impact corn areas and will have no effect on the young wheat. Though some late-planted corn would benefit from the rain, much of the crop is heading toward maturity and will not. Another front will bring some showers in those same areas this weekend and early next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cold temperatures that have moved in may produce some frosts over the next couple of days, but would not damage the remaining mature corn and soybeans awaiting harvest, or the young vegetative winter wheat. Another front will move through this weekend, but models are trending favorably wetter with the system. Wheat could use some more moisture for establishment.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Though some limited showers moved through Europe, it was largely dry over the weekend and temperatures continued to be quite hot in France. The chances for precipitation will be much lower this week while the heat spreads through more of the continent. This should have little effect on maturing wheat, but could damage summer crops. Spotty showers will be possible in a few areas late this week and weekend, but relief from the heat will be tough to accomplish until maybe next week, causing stress.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continued to be frequent over the weekend and will again this week as multiple fronts and systems move through. It may quiet down next week, but some areas of showers will continue.

Heat will be building across Ukraine, but will have a hard time spreading to western Russia until next week. The warmer temperatures would be preferred though for continued growth and development of both wheat and corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier conditions are forecast for much of the week, but a system will move through the West on Friday with scattered showers, and another will move through the northeast with showers this weekend. The western system may get showers into the southeast on Sunday or early next week, getting most areas with showers over the next 7 days or so. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or two. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions.

The dry effect is more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have come at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in the northeast, which likely continues into early July as well. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal south and below normal north.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures below normal north and near to above normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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