DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with a disturbance in the Canadian Prairies.

Both features will continue eastward over the next few days. But the trailing one may stall out in the Great Lakes and continue there into the weekend. The pattern will change later this week. Another trough will move down from Alaska into the West for late this week and weekend while a ridge starts to build across the East going into next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will bottle up the trough for a few days next week, but it should pass over the top of the ridge later next week. The ridge will shift westward to take its place in the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The run of milder temperatures will take at least a brief pause as the ridge develops first across the East, and then spreading the warmer temperatures westward through the Plains and West later next week and weekend. The pattern still appears to be active for the Plains with a system moving through this weekend into early next week. And a warm front lifting northward through the Midwest could still be active with scattered showers and thunderstorms next week as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...112 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW SUN...27 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...KANSAS CITY, MO 2.84 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East with a disturbance in the Canadian Prairies.

Both features will continue eastward over the next few days. But the trailing one may stall out in the Great Lakes and continue there into the weekend. The pattern will change later this week. Another trough will move down from Alaska into the West for late this week and weekend while a ridge starts to build across the East going into next week. The ridge will bottle up the trough for a few days next week, but it should pass over the top of the ridge later next week. The ridge will shift westward to take its place in the middle of the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

The run of milder temperatures will take at least a brief pause as the ridge develops first across the East, and then spreading the warmer temperatures westward through the Plains and West later next week and weekend. The pattern still appears to be active for the Plains with a system moving through this weekend into early next week. And a warm front lifting northward through the Midwest could still be active with scattered showers and thunderstorms next week as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and a system spinning in the region will continue those showers for the next couple of days. Additional small disturbances will bring some areas of showers throughout the week. But a stronger system will move in this weekend and produce more widespread rain and potential severe weather that could linger into next week. While the rainfall is favorable, temperatures remain below normal into next week. That keeps stress low, but growth slow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought heavy rain and severe weather to the region over the weekend. That resulted in some signfiicant wind damage across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, unfavorable for both developing crops and those awaiting harvest. The system is pushing heavy rain southeastward on Monday, but a front will remain draped across the south where showers and thunderstorms may develop yet again over the next couple of days. Additional systems moving to the north could bring more showers to other areas of the region for the remainder of the week as well.

Temperatures will be cooler across the north but hotter south of that stalled front, creating mixed conditions for growing corn and soybeans. The pattern will trend warmer and drier for next week, causing more areas of stress.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another strong system pushed through on Sunday, creating some heavy rain and a bunch of tornadoes for Illinois and Indiana. The pattern stays active this week as the system pushes east on Monday, another rolls through for Tuesday through Thursday, and another goes through on Friday and Saturday. Severe weather is not out of the question, but should be tamer this week. Temperatures should remain mild as well.

However, a warm front will lift northward on Sunday with much warmer temperatures next week. That may actually be beneficial as we are behind with growing degree days and could use some heat in some areas. The chances for rain will continue next week, too, giving little cause for concern with the increasing temperatures.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Heavy rain moved through late last week with the remnants to Tropical Storm Arthur and a front sagged south to bring more showers over the weekend. That front continues with rain chances over the next several days, keeping soil moisture high in most of the region. The front will finally lift northward this weekend and temperatures will increase while the pattern dries out. That may induce some stress if there are any dry areas out there. However, the heat may boost crop growth as well.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A pair of fronts moved in with scattered showers over the weekend, bringing some needed rain into southern Brazil to help with winter wheat establishment. Some very cold air will move into the south over the next couple of days. Those some patchy frost will be possible, it should not impact corn areas and will have no effect on the young wheat. The front will continue showers northward into south-central Brazil on Tuesday and Wednesday. Though some late-planted corn would benefit, much of the crop is heading toward maturity and will not benefit from the rainfall. Another front gets some showers in this weekend in those same areas as well.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front moved through this weekend, but was dry. Cold temperatures that have moved in may produce some frosts, but would not damage the remaining mature corn and soybeans awaiting harvest, or the young vegetative winter wheat. Another front will move through this weekend but again looks dry. Wheat could use some more moisture for establishment.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Though some limited showers moved through Europe, it was largely dry over the weekend and temperatures continued to be quite hot in France. The chances for precipitation will be much lower this week while the heat spreads through more of the continent. This should have little effect on maturing wheat, but could damage summer crops. Spotty showers will be possible in a few areas late this week and weekend, but relief from the heat will be tough to accomplish, causing stress.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continued to be frequent over the weekend and will again this week as multiple fronts and systems move through. It may quiet down this weekend into next week, but some areas of showers will continue. Heat will be building across Ukraine, but will have a hard time spreading to western Russia until next week. The warmer temperatures would be preferred though for continued growth and development of both wheat and corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some isolated showers moved through this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Drier conditions are forecast for much of the week, but a system will move through the West on Friday with scattered showers, and another will move through the northeast with showers this weekend.

The western system may get showers into the southeast on Sunday or early next week, getting most areas with showers over the next 7 days or so. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or two. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers have come at a relatively frequent pace for corn and soybeans in the northeast, which likely continues into early July as well. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal south and below normal north.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal north and near to above normal south through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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