DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...119 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW WED...32 AT ANGEL FIRE, NM AND 7 MILES SOUTH OF NEIHART, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...PEORIA, IL 2.24 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Central and East with a ridge in the West. The trough will start to lift northeast over the weekend. But another trough will move into the West to erase the ridge at the same time. As that trough moves east through the country next week, a ridge will take its place in the West.

Yet another trough is forecast to move into western Canada late next week and then east of the Rockies next weekend and early the following week. This should continue an unsettled pattern for the end of June and early July.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on rainfall coverage and intensity. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

After a system leaves early next week, another system will be possible in the middle of next week and there could be one more for the end of the week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast with both systems in various portions of the Plains and Corn Belt. Temperatures will remain near or below normal next week for most areas east of the Rockies. The combination of continued showers and milder air should be mostly favorable.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Reinforcing shots of cooler air continue to be frequent through next week, bringing periods of showers each time. Though the showers are not likely to be very intense, the frequency should help to maintain soil moisture. The milder air will keep stress down, but the lack of warmth will keep growth slow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several fronts have moved through this week, but with limited showers. That continues at the end of this week, too. A better chance will come this weekend into early next week with a system and front passing through. And additional systems and fronts are forecast to bring at least some showers through on a couple of occasions next week. Cooler temperatures have moved into the region and are likely to stick around through next week, keeping stress low for areas that have had less frequent and intense rain. The combination of milder temperatures and occasional rain are largely favorable, though drought and some areas that are missed could still see stress.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another strong system moved through on Wednesday with some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. Scattered showers continue behind the system into Saturday, but another strong system is likely to move through on Sunday with heavier rain, especially for the southern half of the region. Additional scattered showers are forecast for various points next week. Recent heavy rainfall has been good for improving or maintaining soil moisture in a lot of areas, but has led to some flooding issues as well. Milder temperatures in the region combined with the frequent rainfall is overall favorable for corn and soybean development, but unfavorable for wheat harvest.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Tropical Storm Arthur made it into southern Louisiana on Wednesday night. Its remnants continue across Louisiana and Mississippi on Thursday with extremely heavy rain. A front settling in from the north over the next few days and a system moving through the Midwest on Sunday will bring periods of showers to the region through early next week. Additional rainfall is likely from a couple of additional systems next week. Though flooding may be an issue at times, the continued chances for rain should support soybean and cotton development.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): An upper-level trough has been bringing widespread rainfall for the last 10 days will be moving out this weekend. However, more disturbances are forecast to move through the region next week, continuing the frequent showers that have kept soil moisture high. Temperatures will remain mild through next week, which is causing growth to be slow. That may be an issue for later this summer and early fall if some colder air comes in early.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front will move through Friday and Saturday with widespread showers and another is forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. Any rain that falls will help some late corn and vegetative wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to be much help for corn. Colder air that will move in behind the second front may cause some frosts over wheat areas in the far south, but would not be damaging. Corn areas are not at much of a risk for frost though it will be cooler to limit stress on what remains of filling corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Overall conditions for vegetative winter wheat are favorable, though some cool temperatures will create areas of frost. Wheat is not susceptible to damage yet and won't be for some time. A system moving through on Thursday and Friday will bring some areas of showers that will help to provide some moisture for wheat establishment. Corn and soybean harvest continues at a seasonally slow pace and may be impacted slightly by the coming wetter conditions.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Though a few showers will go through at times, it is drier in most of Europe through next week. Heat is building across Germany and Poland into the weekend, but France has been and will continue to see the most extended heat, which is likely well into next week. That could have some impact on wheat, but will have a more unfavorable effect on corn and other summer crops. Eastern areas of the continent are more likely to see some showers and cooler temperatures as fronts pass through going through next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been frequent over the last couple of months and continue this week as systems pass through rather frequently. Though the showers aren't unwelcome, some warmer temperatures and dryness would be preferred in many areas for maturing wheat and developing corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continues to slowly move through eastern areas over the next day or two with scattered showers. It will be drier for most areas next week, but some isolated showers may still move through. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month or so. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue in the northeast at times through next week, being overall favorable for corn and soybean development. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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