DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Central and East with a ridge in the West. The trough will continue to be stuck, getting several reinforcing shots to maintain its strength. The trough will start to lift northeast over the weekend. But another trough will move into the West to erase the ridge at the same time.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

As that trough moves east through the country next week, a ridge will take its place in the West and start to build across the south as well. This may end up to be a rather unsettled pattern for the end of June and early July.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on rainfall coverage and intensity as well as the strength and duration of colder air lingering around next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is likely to move across the Plains and Corn Belt this weekend into early next week. Another system will be possible in the middle of next week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast with both systems and may be rather widespread as well. Temperatures will drop again behind the weekend system and another reinforcing shot of cooler air may move through behind the midweek system as well. The combination of continued showers and milder air should be mostly favorable east of the Rockies.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...117 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW SUN...23 AT 13 MILES NORTH OF WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, MT, AND 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...SPRINGFIELD, MO 3.19 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the Central and East with a ridge in the West. The trough will continue to be stuck, getting several reinforcing shots to maintain its strength. The trough will start to lift northeast over the weekend. But another trough will move into the West to erase the ridge at the same time. As that trough moves east through the country next week, a ridge will take its place in the West and start to build across the south as well. This may end up being a rather unsettled pattern for the end of June and early July.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on rainfall coverage and intensity as well as the strength and duration of colder air lingering around next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is likely to move across the Plains and Corn Belt this weekend into early next week. Another system will be possible in the middle of next week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast with both systems and may be rather widespread as well. Temperatures will drop again behind the weekend system and another reinforcing shot of cooler air may move through behind the midweek system as well. The combination of continued showers and milder air should be mostly favorable east of the Rockies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but cooler temperatures did too. Reinforcing shots of cooler air will move through several times this week and next, bringing periods of showers each time. Though the showers are not likely to be very intense, the frequency should help to maintain soil moisture. The milder air will keep stress down, but the lack of warmth will keep growth slow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, being heavy in some areas of the Texas Panhandle and across Oklahoma, easing dryness in those areas. Scattered showers will continue in Texas early this week. Several fronts will move through this week, but with limited shower potential. A better chance will come this weekend into early next week with a system and front passing through. Cooler temperatures have moved into the region and are likely to stick around through the weekend and early next week, keeping stress low for areas that have had less frequent and intense rain. The lower rainfall frequency this week should promote harvest for winter wheat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another system moved through this weekend and produced areas of heavy rain, especially in Missouri where flooding has been an issue for the last few months. It has also brought in some much cooler air. A couple of systems moving through this week and next will keep the shower frequency going while reinforcing the cooler air. The combination should be fairly good for developing corn and soybeans, but will make it more difficult to harvest winter wheat.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A couple of fronts moved in and produced scattered showers over the weekend, bringing in some decent rainfall and some lower temperatures. Rainfall will be a little more frequent this week with a stalled front early, more fronts coming in from the north, and a potential tropical low enhancing rain later this week. As long as flooding does not occur, this should be a good combination for developing soybeans and cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): An upper-level trough continues to be reinforced this week, which has already brought through scattered showers and cooler air since late last week. The occasional showers and cooler air will be common through next week. Though frosts are not in the forecast, there may be a couple of spots that become unfortunate enough to cool down too much overnight, producing some frosty temperatures. As long as that is not widespread, conditions are overall favorable, though the lack of warmth is causing growth to be slow.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front brought showers to the south and south-central areas over the weekend. Another front is forecast to move through late this week with more widespread showers. That is helping some late corn and vegetative wheat, but it is getting a bit too late to be much help for corn. Colder air that is moving in may cause some frosts over wheat areas in the far south, but would not be damaging. Corn areas are not at much of a risk for frost though it will be cooler to limit stress on what remains of filling corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Overall conditions for vegetative winter wheat are favorable, though some cool temperatures will create areas of frost. Wheat is not susceptible to damage yet and won't be for some time. A system moving through on Thursday and Friday will bring some areas of showers that will help to provide some moisture for that early wheat. Corn and soybean harvest continues at a seasonally slow pace and may be impacted slightly by the wetter conditions later this week.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system continued showers over eastern areas this weekend while it started to dry out in the west as temperatures began to increase. Though a few showers will go through at times, it'll be drier in most of the continent this week. Heat will build across France into Germany and Poland this week, but France will see the most extended heat into the weekend and maybe even next week. That could have some impact on wheat, but will have a more unfavorable effect on corn and other summer crops. Eastern areas of the continent are more likely to see some showers and cooler temperatures as fronts pass through going through next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers have been frequent over the last couple of months and continue this week as systems pass through rather frequently. Though the showers aren't unwelcome, some warmer temperatures and dryness would be preferred in many areas for maturing wheat and developing corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moved through western areas over the weekend with scattered showers. The system will slowly move through eastern areas this week with additional showers. Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes truer deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the northeast over the weekend and continue this week, being overall favorable for corn and soybean development. Somewhat drier conditions on the North China Plain are promoting wheat and canola harvest. Overall, favorable conditions are felt in most areas after some disruption this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday.

Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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