DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...113 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...16 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SYRACUSE, NY 2.55 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A trough is in the middle of the continent and will hang around through most of next week, making for a rather busy weather pattern. The trough will start to lift northeast out of the country at the end of next week while another trough moves down into the West. A ridge will start to develop over the South next weekend, shifting the pattern once again.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on rainfall coverage and intensity. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

With a trough situated over the middle of the continent, periods of showers and thunderstorms will spread through the country throughout next week. Even though it will leave later next week, the new western trough should keep the active weather pattern going into next weekend. Temperatures will be cooler east of the Rockies while it will be warmer in the West. Temperatures will tend to rise next weekend as the new ridge builds in but could be complicated by the recurring precipitation.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region through next week, but with lower frequency and intensity than we have seen over the last several days. Cooler temperatures will stick around well into next week and may stay mild into late June. The recent and incoming rain will help to raise soil moisture and ease drought, with limited stress from the milder temperatures, leading to good growing conditions overall.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It has been a busy week of weather so far and another system is moving through on Thursday with heavy rain in eastern Nebraska. Its front will tend to settle across the south on Friday with another front moving through on Saturday to meet it and continue showers across the south on Sunday and Monday. Spottier showers will follow next week and will be much more hit-and-miss. Recent rainfall has done a good job of increasing soil moisture and reducing the effects of drought for a lot of the region, though dryness is still a concern in a lot of areas. Heat earlier this week is starting to get wiped out by the coming cold fronts, with cooler air in place this weekend and early next week reducing stress. The areas of frequent and heavy rainfall may be reducing quality and slowing harvest for wheat, though.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Rounds of heavy rain and severe weather continue into the weekend, resulting in a boost in soil moisture, but also some flooding and storm damage. Though a little less frequent than this week, showers will continue in a few waves next week. Some areas will inevitably be missed, and some are also getting hit too often, which is resulting in some more flooding. But overall, this is a good pattern for frequent precipitation for developing corn and soybeans. Warm temperatures this week are falling behind a front moving through on Thursday, and another front moving through this weekend will bring temperatures below-normal for much of next week, easing stress. The rainfall may be impacting quality and slowing harvest for wheat, though.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front will move into the Delta on Friday and stall through the weekend. Another will meet it on Sunday and continue showers into early next week. That will get more rain to move through, maintaining fairly high soil moisture and continuing to reduce the long-term drought. That is great news for developing soybeans and cotton, though some flooding may be possible in some areas, too.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers and severe weather have been moving through the Canadian Prairies since the weekend. An upper-level trough in the region will continue periods of rainfall for the rest of this week and next week as well, but the frequency of rainfall will be lower with time. Though there may be some damage and flooding, the rainfall is helpful for most areas that have seed in the ground. However, planting progress remains behind the average progress in all three provinces and the continued rainfall will make it more difficult to finish up.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front has stalled in south-central Brazil and will continue showers through the weekend. That will help to boost soil moisture for filling corn and wheat establishment. Some early corn is heading toward maturity though, and the rain will not be helpful for that.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It continues to be largely dry into next week despite a couple of fronts moving through. However, recent rainfall last weekend should have helped to boost soil moisture for winter wheat. And though it may have caused some delay in the remaining corn and soybean harvest, that is a slow process that takes through July anyway.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Systems continue to move through Europe this week with widespread precipitation through the weekend. Some areas across France and Spain may not get much rainfall, which may be a little concerning for developing corn and other summer crops. Otherwise, good conditions are found across a lot of the continent. Spotty rainfall may come into southwestern areas later next week on a limited basis.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue across the region through next week, especially across the west which will see higher coverage and intensity. Rainfall has been rather frequent this spring and now into the summer. That is keeping soil moisture high, but may be reducing quality for some winter wheat as areas in the south head toward maturity. The wet weather has also been tough to complete corn planting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month. Another system is bringing through scattered showers to the west on Thursday and will move to the east this weekend. At least one more system will move through next week as well. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Overall favorable conditions continue in central and northeast China for developing corn and soybeans. Some wheat and canola areas have seen some rain, but drier conditions occurred for more areas, helping harvest to advance. Some areas of showers will favor the northeast into next week, continuing to be mostly favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, especially south.

Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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