DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...108 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...28 AT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAND LAKE, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...LEXINGTON, KY 3.45 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West moving into the Northern Plains and a ridge in eastern Canada. The trough will continue to shift into the middle of the continent over the next couple of days, erasing the eastern ridge but allowing a new one to form on the West Coast by the end of the week. The trough will hang around the middle of the continent through most of next week, making for a rather busy weather pattern. The trough will start to lift northeast out of the country at the end of next week while another trough moves down into the West. A ridge will start to develop over the South next weekend, shifting the pattern once again.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on rainfall coverage and intensity. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

With a trough situated over the middle of the continent, periods of showers and thunderstorms will spread through the country throughout next week. Even though it will leave later next week, the new western trough should keep the active weather pattern going. Temperatures will be cooler in the middle of the next week, especially in the Plains, while it will be warmer in the West.

Temperatures will tend to rise next weekend as the new ridge builds in but could be complicated by the recurring precipitation.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved across the region on Tuesday with areas of heavy rain and severe weather. Additional periods of showers will move through the region through next week, but at a less-rapid pace. Cooler temperatures have moved into the region and will stick around well into next week before rising. The recent and incoming rain will help to raise soil moisture and ease drought.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Multiple systems continue to move through this week with areas of showers and thunderstorms. Though there will be showers around this week, the potential for a lot of heavy rain in the primary wheat growing areas is somewhat low until the weekend, which may give a few good days for doing fieldwork. A system early next week may result in more widespread and heavier precipitation, but models have relaxed on their extremely busy pattern for next week with only occasional showers after Tuesday. Temperatures will decrease late in the week and go below normal starting on Sunday, which will be more likely for next week as well. The combination of mild temperatures and somewhat frequent rain should be good for developing corn and soybeans but may make it difficult for harvest and reduce quality for wheat.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Rounds of heavy rain and severe weather have been frequent since the weekend, resulting in a boost in soil moisture, but also some flooding and storm damage. The pattern remains very busy for the Midwest through next week. Some areas will inevitably be missed, and some are also going to get hit too often, which will result in some more flooding. But overall, this is a good pattern for frequent precipitation for developing corn and soybeans. Warm temperatures early this week will become much more mild by the weekend with below-normal temperatures for much of next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front will move into the Delta on Friday and stall through the weekend. That will probably happen again with another on Sunday into early next week. That will get more rain to move through, maintaining fairly high soil moisture and continuing to reduce the long-term drought. That is great news for developing soybeans and cotton, though some flooding may be possible in some areas, too.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers and severe weather have been moving through the Canadian Prairies since the weekend. An upper-level trough moving into the region will continue periods of rainfall for the rest of this week and next week as well, but the frequency of rainfall will be lower than areas to the south. Though there may be some damage, the rainfall is helpful for most areas that have seed in the ground. However, planting progress remains behind the average progress in all three provinces and the continued rainfall will make it more difficult to finish up.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front has stalled in south-central Brazil and will continue showers through the weekend. That will help to boost soil moisture for filling corn and wheat establishment. Some early corn is heading toward maturity though, and the rain will not be helpful for that.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Though it will probably be dry most of the week, a couple of systems will move through. Recent rainfall over the weekend should have helped to boost soil moisture for winter wheat. And though it may have caused some delay in the remaining corn and soybean harvest, that is a slow process that takes through July anyway.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Systems continue to move through Europe this week with more widespread precipitation and some areas of heavier rain. Some areas across France may not get much rainfall, which may be a little concerning for developing corn and other summer crops. Otherwise, good conditions are found across a lot of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Spotty showers are expected for the next couple of days before a system starts moving into the west on Friday with more widespread and heavier rain for the weekend that will spread east next week.

Rainfall has been rather frequent this spring and now into the summer. That is keeping soil moisture high, but may be reducing quality for some winter wheat as areas in the south head toward maturity. The wet weather has also been tough to complete corn planting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month. A couple of systems are bringing through scattered showers this week, especially to the west. At least one more system will be possible next week as well. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Overall favorable conditions continue in central and northeast China for developing corn and soybeans. Some wheat and canola areas have seen some rain, but drier conditions occurred for more areas, helping harvest to advance. Some areas of showers will favor the northeast into next week, continuing to be mostly favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, below normal Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.