Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain that will be heavy with areas of severe weather across the Corn Belt, recent heavy rain in the Canadian Prairies, and few other global weather issues are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST

A front will continue to slowly progress eastward for the next two days, continuing scattered showers over much of the Midwest. A front that pushes through Wednesday through Friday, and disturbances that follow over the weekend and again next week should keep the region busy with precipitation chances and severe weather. Some areas will inevitably be missed, and some are also going to get hit too often, which will result in some unfortunate flooding. But overall, this is a good pattern for frequent precipitation for developing corn and soybeans. Warm temperatures early this week will become much more mild by the weekend with below-normal temperatures for much of next week.

CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Multiple systems will continue to move through the Central and Southern Plains this week with potential for areas of showers and thunderstorms, especially in Nebraska and Kansas. Though there will be showers around this week, the potential for a lot of heavy rain in the primary wheat growing areas is somewhat low until the weekend, which may give a few good days for doing fieldwork. More systems next week may result in more widespread and heavier precipitation. Temperatures will be hot for the next couple of days, but will decrease late in the week and go below normal starting on Sunday, which will be more likely for next week as well. The combination of mild temperatures and somewhat frequent rain should be good for developing corn and soybeans.

STRONG STORMS FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through the Northern Plains over the weekend, creating some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. The region will be the target for multiple additional fronts and systems moving through over the next week or two. Some strong thunderstorms are forecast for Tuesday. The recent and incoming rain will help to raise soil moisture and ease drought. Temperatures will be falling below normal by later in the week and likely maintaining that position through much of next week, keeping stresses low but growth slow.

SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend and severe weather and heavy rain moved through eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Periods of rainfall will continue both this week and next week with a trough settling into the region, but the frequency of rainfall will be lower than areas to the south. Though there may be some damage, the rainfall is helpful for most areas that have seed in the ground. However, planting progress remains behind the average progress in all three provinces and the continued rainfall will not be helpful for that.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE DELTA

Scattered showers moved back into the Delta over the weekend and on Monday. Another front will move through on Friday and stall there through the weekend. It appears that will largely be the case with another on Sunday into early next week. That will get more rain to move through, keeping the potential for high soil moisture and drought reduction in the cards. That is great news for developing soybeans and cotton, though some flooding may be possible in some areas, too.

SHOWERS RETURNING TO BRAZIL

A front has stalled in south-central Brazil and will continue showers through Friday and maybe even into the weekend. That will help to boost soil moisture for filling corn and wheat establishment. Some early corn is heading toward maturity though, and the rain will not be helpful for that.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EUROPE

A couple of systems will move through Europe this week with more widespread precipitation and some areas of heavier rain. Some areas across France may not get much rainfall, which may be a little concerning for developing corn and other summer crops. Otherwise, good conditions are found across a lot of the continent.

SHOWERY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, ESPECIALLY WEST

A system that moved across Europe brought some heavier rain across the western Black Sea region over the weekend into Monday, while it was favorably drier in the east. More spotty showers are expected for the rest of the week before a system starts moving into the west on Friday with more widespread and heavier rain for the weekend that will spread east next week.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA DURING BUILDING EL NINO

It was drier in Australia over the weekend, but many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month. A couple of systems will bring through scattered showers this week, especially to the west. More systems will be possible next week as well. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

OVERALL GOOD WEATHER FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN CHINA

Scattered showers moved through central and northeastern China over the weekend, continuing overall favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Some wheat and canola areas saw showers, but drier conditions occurred for more areas, helping harvest to advance. Some areas of showers will favor the northeast this week, continuing to be mostly favorable.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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