DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West, a small one in the Midwest, and a ridge in eastern Canada. The Midwest trough will continue to slowly move underneath the Canadian ridge over the next couple of days, spreading showers through the Midwest and then the Northeast. The western trough will move eastward later this week, erasing the eastern ridge but allowing a new one to form on the West Coast by the end of the week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough will hang around the middle of the continent through most of next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on rainfall coverage and intensity. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

With a trough situated over the middle of the continent, periods of showers and thunderstorms will spread through the country from the weekend throughout next week. Temperatures will be cooler in the middle of the country, especially in the Plains, while it will be warmer in the West and along the East Coast.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...109 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...21 AT 13 MILES NORTH OF WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...BIRMINGHAM, AL 3.25 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the West, a small one in the Midwest, and a ridge in eastern Canada. The Midwest trough will continue to slowly move underneath the Canadian ridge over the next couple of days, spreading showers through the Midwest and then the Northeast. The western trough will move eastward later this week, erasing the eastern ridge but allowing a new one to form on the West Coast by the end of the week. The trough will hang around the middle of the continent through next week, making for a rather busy weather pattern.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on rainfall coverage and intensity. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

With a trough situated over the middle of the continent, periods of showers and thunderstorms will spread through the country from the weekend throughout next week. Temperatures will be cooler in the middle of the country, especially in the Plains, while it will be warmer in the West and along the East Coast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend, creating some areas of heavy rain and severe weather. The region will be the target for multiple additional fronts and systems moving through over the next week or two. The recent and incoming rain will help to raise soil moisture and ease drought. Temperatures will be falling below normal by later in the week and likely maintaining that position through much of next week, keeping stresses low but growth slow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Multiple systems will continue to move through this week with potential for areas of showers and thunderstorms, especially in Nebraska and Kansas. Though there will be showers around this week, the potential for a lot of heavy rain in the primary wheat growing areas is somewhat low until the weekend, which may give a few good days for doing fieldwork. More systems next week may result in more widespread and heavier precipitation. Temperatures will be hot for the next couple of days, but will decrease late in the week and go below normal starting on Sunday, which will be more likely for next week as well. The combination of mild temperatures and somewhat frequent rain should be good for developing corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue to slowly progress eastward for the next two days, continuing scattered showers over much of the region. A front that pushes through Wednesday through Friday, and disturbances that follow over the weekend and again next week should keep the region busy with precipitation chances and severe weather. Some areas will inevitably be missed, and some are also going to get hit too often, which will result in some unfortunate flooding. But overall, this is a good pattern for frequent precipitation for developing corn and soybeans. Warm temperatures early this week will become much more mild by the weekend with below-normal temperatures for much of next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers moved back into the region over the weekend and on Monday. Another front will move through on Friday and stall there through the weekend. It appears that will largely be the case with another on Sunday into early next week. That will get more rain to move through, keeping the potential for high soil moisture and drought reduction in the cards. That is great news for developing soybeans and cotton, though some flooding may be possible in some areas, too.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, and severe weather and heavy rain moved through eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Periods of rainfall will continue both this week and next week with a trough settling into the region, but the frequency of rainfall will be lower than areas to the south. Though there may be some damage, the rainfall is helpful for most areas that have seed in the ground. However, planting progress remains behind the average progress in all three provinces, and the continued rainfall will not be helpful for that.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front has stalled in south-central Brazil and will continue showers through Friday and maybe even into the weekend. That will help to boost soil moisture for filling corn and wheat establishment. Some early corn is heading toward maturity though, and the rain will not be helpful for that.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system moved through over the weekend, producing scattered showers for much of the country. Though that might slow down the harvest progress of corn and soybeans, that is a slow process anyway. For wheat, the rainfall will help to increase soil moisture for establishment. Though it will probably be dry most of the week, a couple of systems will move through. One that comes through this weekend will bring in much cooler temperatures, which may result in some frosts. Frosts would not be a concern even if they occur, however.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A couple of systems will move through this week with more widespread precipitation and some areas of heavier rain. Some areas across France may not get much rainfall, which may be a little concerning for developing corn and other summer crops. Otherwise, good conditions are found across a lot of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system that moved across Europe brought some heavier rain across the west over the weekend into Monday while it was favorably drier in the east. More spotty showers are expected for the rest of the week before a system starts moving into the west on Friday with more widespread and heavier rain for the weekend that will spread east next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was drier over the weekend, but many areas have seen improved soil moisture over the last month. A couple of systems will bring through scattered showers this week, especially to the west. More systems will be possible next week as well. The frequent rainfall is somewhat unusual during a building El Nino, which favors drier conditions. That becomes more true deeper into the winter and in early spring, which may have a more damaging impact for winter wheat and canola later this year.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through central and northeastern China over the weekend, continuing overall favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Some wheat and canola areas saw showers, but drier conditions occurred for more areas, helping harvest to advance. Some areas of showers will favor the northeast this week, continuing to be mostly favorable.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday-Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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