DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...114 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW WED...22 AT 14 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...AUSTIN, TX 1.47 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge weakening in the East with troughs in the Canadian Prairies, Southwest, and North Pacific. The Prairies continues to break down the ridge and will move east through Canada through Saturday. Another ridge is forecast to develop behind it for the second week of June, though the Pacific trough moving into the West this weekend could make that ridge somewhat short-lived.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but differ on how far south to push a cold front and where to place rain next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

With the Southwest trough and West trough both providing energy and moisture to the middle of the country, it should be pretty busy for much of next week between the Rockies and Mississippi River and may extend east with showers at times across the Midwest, Delta, and Southeast at various points next week as well. The Northern Plains should be especially busy. Temperatures will generally be above normal, but will be complicated by the areas of showers and cooler air will have a tendency to drift into the Northern Plains at some point next week with all the systems moving into the region.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system did a great job of producing a lot of rain over the last several days, but the busy pattern is only starting. Multiple disturbances, systems, and fronts moving through over the next week or two should bring almost daily showers and thunderstorms to the region. The recent and forecast rainfall is helping to boost soil moisture and ease stress.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system in the Northern Plains has been producing rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region this week and continues into the weekend even though the system is leaving the Plains. Additional fronts and disturbances moving through the area will keep showers going for a lot of the region through next week. That will help with boosting soil moisture and reducing drought and impacts for summer crops, though winter wheat is heading toward maturity and could actually use some hotter and drier conditions for harvest.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will drag a cold front through the region over the next several days, producing areas of showers and thunderstorms. The western end of the region will see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms while it will be more of a passing feature in the east. More disturbances moving through next week should add to the shower potential and some areas in the west may end up with too much rainfall, like in Missouri where flooding has been a problem over the last month. We may still see some areas getting missed that would be somewhat of a concern for developing drought in a few unlucky spots, but the forecast favors an active pattern for the second half of June and beyond, limiting the overall impact of dryness.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): The recent run of rainfall has done a great job of increasing soil moisture and reducing the impacts of drought. Even though large deficits still remain in some areas, especially in the north, the effects of drought have been significantly reduced. Rainfall should return this weekend with a stalling front nearby, which may mean several rounds of showers through next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A big system has brought multiple rounds of rainfall through the region since the weekend, producing areas of heavy rain, especially across Alberta and far western Saskatchewan. To the east, showers have been more scattered, allowing producers to continue fieldwork to some degree, but also being heavy at times, maintaining good soil moisture. Producers in Alberta have had to stop because of the consistent, heavy rain. Breaks in the weather are going to be short-lived as round after round of showers and thunderstorms are forecast through next week. Flooding may be a problem in several areas, and those with planting yet to do will have a difficult time doing so.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): It has been very dry lately in much of Brazil, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. Though some showers may move through early next week, drier conditions continue to be unfavorable for filling corn and wheat establishment. Models are keying in on another system for late next week that could bring about more widespread rainfall.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions have allowed for the continued slow progress of harvest for corn and soybeans, as well as planting for winter wheat. Some isolated showers will be possible across the south and central on Thursday and Friday. Another system will move through over the weekend with scattered showers, which will help to moisten soils at least a little bit for winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Multiple systems continue to move through the continent into at least early next week, bringing through widespread areas of rainfall which will help to soften soils after last week's hot and dry conditions caused stress. Another drier stretch is likely by the middle of next week, which may cause some higher temperatures in parts of the continent as well. Despite that, no significant areas of concern are noted at this time.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Systems moving through Europe will continue to produce some showers into next week, mostly for western areas that are somewhat drier. It may be a bit drier in the east for a bit and temperatures are rising, which would be more favorable after a pretty wet and cool spring.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system scraped through the east this week and another system or two is forecast to bring some showers next week as well, favoring winter wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation are giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino. That becomes especially true during the second half of winter into early spring, which may have a more damaging impact later this year yet.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Most areas have good soil moisture and some areas have too much in the south for winter crops that are maturing and awaiting harvest. A stronger cold front has moved through northern areas with a burst of cooler temperatures and some showers, keeping stresses low, but also slowing down crop growth. Additional showers will be possible at times over the primary corn and soybean areas through next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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