Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More periods of rain that will hit a lot of drought areas in the U.S., an increase in the rainfall forecast for the Midwest, and rainfall in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE MIDWEST

It was drier in the eastern Midwest this weekend while the west saw scattered showers, particularly in Missouri where it was heavier and produced some localized flooding. Showers continue on Monday, but back off on Tuesday before a system in the Northern Plains begins to push eastward into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Though showers will be more consistent in the west, forecasts have the front progressing into the east this weekend and stalling, which would produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms across much of the region going into early next week, a good bit of change from last week's model runs. We may still see some areas getting missed that would be somewhat of a concern for developing drought in a few unlucky spots.

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A system moved north of the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend and brought areas of showers and thunderstorms, which have been pretty widespread, though less so in western Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma. The system will remain in the Northern Plains through Wednesday, producing more rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including for those areas that were drier this weekend. The front to the system may even continue showers through the weekend and early next week if it remains somewhat stalled out. That will help with boosting soil moisture and reducing drought and impacts, though winter wheat is heading toward maturity and could actually use some hotter and drier conditions for harvest. Some areas of severe weather will also be possible for the next week.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system moved into the Northern Plains over the weekend and brought areas of scattered showers and heavy rain. The system will spin around the region through Wednesday before it pushes east. Behind the system, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible as another system approaches from the west. The recent and forecast rainfall is helping to boost soil moisture and ease stress from last week's hot and dry conditions.

HEAVY RAIN IN WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A big system pushed into the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, producing areas of heavy rain across Alberta and far western Saskatchewan. Other areas to the east saw more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The system will remain stalled in the region and produce scattered showers through Wednesday before it pushes east. Even after the system leaves, scattered showers may develop as a new system takes its place on Friday into the weekend. Though flooding is certainly a concern in Alberta, the boost in soil moisture is extremely noteworthy. However, the rain has shut down planting progress, which is still behind schedule in all three provinces, leading to some late plantings this season.

DELTA GETTING A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS

A front continued to produce scattered showers in the Delta over the weekend. Though the front is getting pushed southward on Monday and several dry days will follow, the recent run of rainfall has done a great job of increasing soil moisture and reducing the impacts of drought. Even though large deficits still remain in some areas, especially in the north, the effects of drought have been significantly reduced. Rainfall may return this weekend with a stalling front nearby.

WIDESPREAD DRYNESS IN BRAZIL

Though a few showers went through across the south on Friday, it has been very dry lately in much of Brazil, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. Another week or two of dry conditions are forecast country-wide, leading to stress for filling corn and poor conditions for establishment for winter wheat.

RELIEF FOR WESTERN EUROPE

Last week's heat in western Europe relented over the weekend as some showers moved through France and pushed into central areas on Sunday. Multiple systems will move through this week, bringing through widespread areas of rainfall, which will help to soften soils after last week's hot and dry conditions caused stress.

SHOWERY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Scattered showers continued in the Black Sea region over the weekend. Systems moving through Europe may have a hard time producing precipitation in the region this week, though western areas could receive some decent rainfall. After a pretty wet and cool spring, most areas could use some warmth and sunshine. The showers may stick around through early June, but temperatures should be gradually rising. Depending on how hard the showers fall, some quality issues may be found in wheat.

MORE SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

A system scraped by southern Australia with scattered showers over the weekend, and another couple will move through this week with more potential next week as well, favoring winter wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation are giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino. That becomes especially true during the second half of winter into early spring, which may have a more damaging impact later this year yet.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

It was largely dry in central and northern China over the weekend, but most areas have good soil moisture and some areas have too much in the south for winter crops that are trying to mature. A stronger cold front will move through northern areas this week with a burst of cooler temperatures and some showers, keeping stresses low, but also slowing down crop growth.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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