DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...108 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...22 AT ANGEL FIRE, NM

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...JACKSONVILLE, FL 2.08 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in central Canada with a trough in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies and another on the East Coast. It will take a couple of days, but the Prairies trough will break down the Canadian ridge, as the trough will then move east through Canada the rest of the week. Meanwhile, another trough will develop in the Southwest this week and weekend. After the northern trough moves east, another ridge is forecast to develop behind it for the second week of June, though a trough moving into the West this weekend could make that ridge a short-lived one. The pattern is looking a little more active than it did last week, a bit more favorable for precipitation in parts of the Plains and Midwest than previously thought.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have different ideas on precipitation coverage and placement. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may stall from the Southern Plains to the Midwest this weekend, bringing some areas of showers and thunderstorms into next week. We might also see another system move across the north mid-late next week with scattered showers. Temperatures should have a tendency to be above normal where it is not raining, which may be around the Great Lakes more often than anywhere else.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved in over the weekend and brought areas of scattered showers and heavy rain. The system will spin around the region through Wednesday before it pushes east. Behind the system, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible as another system approaches from the west. The recent and forecast rainfall is helping to boost soil moisture and ease stress from last week's hot and dry conditions.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved north of the region over the weekend and brought areas of showers and thunderstorms, which have been pretty widespread, though less so in western Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma. The system will remain in the Northern Plains through Wednesday, producing more rounds of showers and thunderstorms, including for those areas that were drier this weekend. The front to the system may even continue showers through the weekend and early next week if it remains somewhat stalled out. That will help with boosting soil moisture and reducing drought and impacts, though winter wheat is heading toward maturity and could actually use some hotter and drier conditions for harvest. Some areas of severe weather will also be possible for the next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was drier in the east this weekend while the west saw scattered showers, particularly in Missouri where it was heavier and produced some localized flooding. Showers continue on Monday, but back off on Tuesday before a system in the Northern Plains begins to push eastward into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Though showers will be more consistent in the west, forecasts have the front progressing into the east this weekend and stalling, which would produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms across much of the region going into early next week, a good bit of change from last week's model runs. We may still see some areas getting missed that would be somewhat of a concern for developing drought in a few unlucky spots.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front continued to produce scattered showers over the weekend. Though the front is getting pushed southward on Monday and several dry days will follow, the recent run of rainfall has done a great job of increasing soil moisture and reducing the impacts of drought. Even though large deficits still remain in some areas, especially in the north, the effects of drought have been significantly reduced. Rainfall may return this weekend with a stalling front nearby.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A big system pushed into the region over the weekend, producing areas of heavy rain across Alberta and far western Saskatchewan. Other areas to the east saw more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The system will remain stalled in the region and produce scattered showers through Wednesday before it pushes east. Even after the system leaves, scattered showers may develop as a new system takes its place on Friday into the weekend. Though flooding is certainly a concern in Alberta, the boost in soil moisture is extremely noteworthy. However, the rain has shut down planting progress, which is still behind schedule in all three provinces, leading to some late plantings this season.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Though a few showers went through across the south on Friday, it has been very dry lately in much of Brazil, unfavorable for both corn and wheat. Another week or two of dry conditions are forecast country-wide, leading to stress for filling corn and poor conditions for establishment for winter wheat.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It was dry over the weekend, allowing for the continued slow progress of harvest for corn and soybeans, as well as planting for winter wheat. Some isolated showers will be possible this week across the west, and a few more will go by with a front across the south on Thursday, but drier conditions continue to be the normal process heading into the winter season.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Last week's heat relented over the weekend as some showers moved through France and pushed into central areas on Sunday. Multiple systems will move through this week, bringing through widespread areas of rainfall, which will help to soften soils after last week's hot and dry conditions caused stress.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continued over the weekend.

Systems moving through Europe may have a hard time producing precipitation in the region this week, though western areas could receive some decent rainfall.

After a pretty wet and cool spring, most areas could use some warmth and sunshine. The showers may stick around through early June, but temperatures should be gradually rising. Depending on how hard the showers fall, some quality issues may be found in wheat.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system scraped by the south with scattered showers over the weekend, and another couple will move through this week with more potential next week as well, favoring winter wheat and canola establishment. Recent and forecast precipitation are giving a boost to the country during a time when drier conditions are more likely because of the building El Nino. That becomes especially true during the second half of winter into early spring, which may have a more damaging impact later this year yet.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was largely dry over the weekend, but most areas have good soil moisture and some areas have too much in the south for winter crops that are trying to mature. A stronger cold front will move through northern areas this week with a burst of cooler temperatures and some showers, keeping stresses low, but also slowing down crop growth.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

East: Isolated showers west Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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