DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...100 AT 6 MILES EAST OF CHATSWORTH, NJ, AND 4 MILES EAST OF NORTH SHORE, CA

LOW WED...12 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...COLUMBUS, OH 1.73 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough moving over the top of it in eastern Canada. Another trough is in the Plains and will push northeast over the ridge this weekend. A ridge will pop up behind it in central Canada next week. Other troughs will find an easy path through western Canada and the Southwest this weekend and into next week, keeping the pattern messy for the western half of the continent.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are differences in precipitation placement and timing, not unusual for this type of pattern. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

An old front will be waffling around from the Southern Plains through the Southeast for several days next week, producing areas of showers and thunderstorms that may have a tendency to drift northward with time into the Midwest. Systems moving through western Canada will likely extend showers through the West and Plains. Temperatures will generally be above normal for much of the country except the West and around Texas and the Southeast where showers and cloud cover would keep temperatures down a bit.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures were well below normal the last few days, producing some frosts and freezes. Temperatures are moderating, with frost chances diminishing. Showers are moving back in with a small system moving through Friday. The pattern will be messier next week, but may include a few chances for rain as well. Though the frosts may have been somewhat damaging to any emergent soybeans, the bouts of rain are favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is stalling down around Texas, where periods of showers will occur well into next week. Another system is moving across through Friday with more scattered showers for the rest of the region. The pattern will be messier next week, which will provide more opportunities for precipitation throughout the region as well. Though showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, there will be some beneficial rainfall both this week and next that will help to increase soil moisture for emergent corn and soybeans. It is largely too late for wheat. In addition, cold air may have caused frost damage in the northwest on Tuesday and northeast on Wednesday.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front has pushed south of the region. Severe weather and flooding have been issues this week, particularly across the south. Otherwise, the rainfall has been largely favorable for increasing or maintaining soil moisture. Another weaker system will move through late Thursday through Saturday with more scattered showers. The front to the system could bring showers to southern areas through next week at times as well. As long as flooding and severe weather are not widespread, the pattern is favorable for the end of May.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front is stalling in the region, which will bring through daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through a good portion of next week. Though some severe weather and flooding may be possible, the pattern should support increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the region through the end of next week. That should help to increase soil moisture, but should not be heavy enough to discourage planting in most areas. Though planting continues to be behind schedule, producers will find a way. Once the crop is in the ground, plants will find good soil moisture for a while. The pattern does encourage some colder air returning next week in the west, a factor to watch for potential frosts.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Wheat planting continues to increase across the far south, and is dependent on showers to move in to support root growth. Another little system will bring some showers to Parana on Friday with more showers possible across the far south later next week. Safrinha corn has been suffering outside of the far southern growing areas, which continues as fill progresses.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. Colder temperatures this week may produce frosts at times, but are not a threat to corn, soybeans, or wheat. A system will go through the country toward the end of next week and may bring some showers through, which would be helpful for wheat germination.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Recent widespread rainfall has been overall favorable for much of the wheat and corn crops. Temperatures are increasing this week, and may cause some stress if there are drier areas out in the west. And drier weather is generally expected through next week. Some areas that are on the cusp of being too dry will find the conditions stressful.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level low-pressure system slid into the region over the weekend continues to bring showers for the next few days. Drier areas in the west have been finding more beneficial coverage and amounts, overall a very favorable situation for much of the region. A larger system may move through next week with more widespread precipitation, but also some colder air.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought some areas of heavy rainfall to the east this past weekend. That has increased soil moisture a bit, buying winter wheat and canola areas a couple of weeks. A few isolated showers will move through the west on Thursday, and through the east Sunday and Monday. The pattern is also looking a little more busy with occasional showers next week. However, the overall theme is dry with a developing El Nino over the winter and into next spring, which is a more persistent negative force for the winter crops.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system this weekend produced some heavy rain in some northern and central areas, but flooding was outside of the primary growing regions. Some areas in the northeast continue to be on the drier side, unfavorable for corn and soybeans. Models have increased chances for precipitation in these areas for Friday, this weekend, and next week, which would be welcomed. Southern canola areas have been in much better shape this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures below normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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