DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...109 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...5 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...DAYTON, OH 1.41 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough moving over the top of it in eastern Canada. A portion of the trough is being left behind in the Plains and another little disturbance is moving through the Canadian Prairies. The two troughs in the Plains will tend to combine over the next day or two and then push northeast over the ridge this weekend. The ridge will pop up behind it in central Canada next week. Other troughs will find an easy path through western Canada and the Southwest this weekend and into next week, keeping the pattern messy for the western half of the continent.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are differences in precipitation placement and timing, not unusual for this type of pattern. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

An old front will be waffling around from the Southern Plains through the Southeast for several days next week, producing areas of showers and thunderstorms that may have a tendency to drift northward with time into the Midwest. Systems moving through western Canada will likely extend showers through the West and Plains. Temperatures will generally be rising above normal for much of the country except the West and around Texas where showers and cloud cover would keep temperatures down a bit.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures have been well below normal the last few days, producing some frosts and freezes. Temperatures are starting to moderate, with frost chances diminishing. Showers will move back in with a small system moving through Wednesday through Friday. The pattern will be messier next week, but may include a few chances for rain as well. Though the frosts could be somewhat damaging to any emergent soybeans, the bouts of rain are favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is stalling down around Texas, where periods of showers will occur well into next week. Another system will move through Wednesday through Friday with more scattered showers for the rest of the region. The pattern will be messier next week, which will provide more opportunities for precipitation throughout the region as well. Though showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, there will be some beneficial rainfall both this week and next that will help to increase soil moisture for emergent corn and soybeans. However, cold air caused frosts in the northwest on Tuesday and northeast on Wednesday, which may cause damage to emergent crops and winter wheat there.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is pushing south of the region with a final round of showers and thunderstorms along the Ohio River on Wednesday. Severe weather and flooding have been issues this week, particularly across the south. Otherwise, the rainfall is largely favorable for increasing or maintaining soil moisture. After a couple of drier days, another weaker system will move through late Thursday through Saturday with more scattered showers. The front to the system could bring showers to southern areas through next week at times as well. As long as flooding and severe weather are not widespread, the pattern is favorable for the end of May.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front is moving into the region, which will stall and bring through daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through a good portion of next week. Though some severe weather and flooding may be possible, the pattern should support increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Cold air that moved in late last week caused areas of frosts and freezes that continue for another day or two in the east. Along with widespread areas of precipitation, that has slowed down planting progress in a time when the planting window is shorter. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the region through the end of the week and bouts of precipitation will be possible next week as well. That should help to increase soil moisture, but should not be heavy enough to discourage planting. Producers will find a way. Once the crop is in the ground, plants will find good soil moisture for a while. The pattern does encourage some colder air returning next week in the west, a factor to watch for potential frosts.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Wheat planting continues to increase across the far south and is dependent on showers to move in to support root growth. Another little system will bring some showers to Parana later this week with more showers possible across the far south later next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. Colder temperatures this week may produce frosts at times, but are not a threat to corn, soybeans, or wheat. A system will go through the country toward the end of next week and may bring some showers through, which would be helpful for wheat germination.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Recent widespread rainfall has been overall favorable for much of the wheat and corn crops. A few colder days over the weekend produced some very patchy frosts, but were not widespread enough to cause much concern. Temperatures are increasing this week, and may cause some stress if there are drier areas out in the west. With showers largely exiting on Wednesday, drier weather is generally expected late this week through next week. Some areas that are on the cusp of being too dry will find the conditions stressful.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level low-pressure system slid into the region over the weekend continues to bring showers for the next few days. Drier areas in the west have been finding more beneficial coverage and amounts, overall a very favorable situation for much of the region. A larger system may move through next week with more widespread precipitation.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought some areas of heavy rainfall to the east this past weekend. That is increasing soil moisture, buying winter wheat and canola areas a couple of weeks. A few isolated showers will move through the west on Thursday, and through the east Sunday and Monday. However, the overall theme is dry with a developing El Nino over the winter and into next spring, which is a more persistent negative force for the winter crops.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system this weekend produced some heavy rain in some northern and central areas, but flooding was outside of the primary growing regions. Some areas in the northeast continue to be on the drier side, unfavorable for corn and soybeans. Models have started to increase chances for precipitation in these areas for next week, which would be welcomed. Southern canola areas have been in much better shape this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers far south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers southeast. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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