Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A cold front stalling across the southern tier of the U.S., cold air across the Northern Plains, recent rain in northern Europe, and heavy rain in eastern Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

FRONT PUSHING OUT OF MIDWEST

A stalled front has been bringing through areas of heavy rain and severe weather over the weekend into Monday. A system now moving into Ontario will push the front through the region on Tuesday with a final round of showers and thunderstorms along the Ohio River on Wednesday. To go along with the severe weather, flooding has been an issue in some areas as well, particularly around Missouri, which has been hit multiple times. Otherwise, the rainfall is largely favorable for increasing or maintaining soil moisture. After a couple of drier days, another weaker system will move through late Thursday through Saturday with more scattered showers. The front to the system could bring showers to southern areas through next week at times as well. As long as flooding and severe weather are not widespread, the pattern is favorable for the end of May.

FRONT CONTINUING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front brought areas of heavy rain and severe weather across Nebraska and Kansas on Sunday and Monday, resulting in many tornadoes and wind damage. The front will push southward and stall around Texas, where showers will occur well into next week. Another system will move through Wednesday through Friday with more scattered showers farther north. Though showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, there will be some beneficial rainfall this week that will help to increase soil moisture for emergent corn and soybeans. However, cold air caused frosts in the northwest on Tuesday that may repeat on Wednesday, which may cause damage to emergent crops and winter wheat there.

SHOWERS AND COLDER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers developed across the Northern Plains over the weekend and Monday, bringing some areas of heavier rain to some dry areas in the region, particularly in the Dakotas. Temperatures are well below normal, producing some frosts and freezes the next morning or two. Temperatures will start to moderate in the middle of the week while showers will move back in with a small system moving through Wednesday through Friday. Though the frosts could be somewhat damaging to any emergent soybeans, the bouts of rain are favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

COLD WITH SHOWERS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Cold air that moved into the Canadian Prairies late last week caused areas of frosts and freezes over the weekend that continues for another couple of days. To go along with recent precipitation, the cold is slowing down planting progress, which is slow and has a short window this year. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the region through the end of the week. That should help to increase soil moisture, but will not be heavy enough to discourage planting. More bouts of rain are forecast for next week.

FRONT STALLING, GETTING WETTER IN THE DELTA

A front will move into the Delta this week and stall, bringing through daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through a good portion of next week. Though some severe weather and flooding may be possible, the pattern should support increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

DRIER AGAIN IN BRAZIL

A front moved into southern Brazil over the weekend, bringing some areas of heavy rain to Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. Very little of the safrinha corn areas have received rainfall. Wheat planting continues to increase across the far south and is dependent on these showers to move in to support root growth. Another little system will bring some showers to Parana later this week with more showers possible across the far south next week.

RECENT FAVORABLE RAINFALL IN EUROPE

An upper-level system brought widespread rainfall across Europe last week and weekend, including over the drier northeast, improving conditions there. Other systems are bringing showers to northern Europe over the next few days, overall favorable for wheat and corn. A few colder days over the weekend produced some very patchy frosts, but were not widespread enough to cause much concern. Temperatures are increasing this week and may cause some stress if there are drier areas out in the west. Drier weather is generally expected late this week through next week.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

An upper-level low-pressure system slid into the Black Sea region over the weekend continues to bring showers throughout the week. Drier areas in the west will have more beneficial coverage and amounts, overall, a very favorable situation for much of the region.

HEAVY RAIN FELL IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA THIS PAST WEEKEND

A system brought some areas of heavy rainfall to eastern Australia this past weekend. That is increasing soil moisture, buying winter wheat and canola areas a couple of weeks. However, the overall theme is dry with a developing El Nino over the winter and into next spring, which is a more persistent negative force for the winter crops.

FLOODING RAIN MISSED CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

A system this weekend produced some heavy rain in some northern and central areas of China, but flooding was outside of the primary growing regions. Showers will leave the North China Plain on Tuesday. Some areas in the northeast continue to be on the drier side, unfavorable for corn and soybeans. Despite the recent rain, shower chances are still lower than favorable for much of central and northeastern China. Southern canola areas have been in much better shape this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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