DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Northern Plains back into the Southwest. The Plains portion of the trough will be forced over the ridge through Canada over the next couple of days. Another small trough will follow behind it this week into the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Other troughs will find an easy path through western Canada and the Southwest this weekend and into next week while the ridge backs up a bit into the Central.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are differences in precipitation placement and timing, not unusual for this type of pattern for this time of year. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

An old front will likely remain active with showers across the South this weekend and possibly through next week as well. Systems moving through western Canada will likely extend showers through the Plains and maybe the Midwest next week. Temperatures will generally be rising above normal for much of the country except around Texas where showers and cloud cover would keep temperatures down a bit.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...109 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...10 AT 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...ST. LOUIS, MO 2.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Northern Plains back into the Southwest. The Plains portion of the trough will be forced over the ridge through Canada over the next couple of days. Another small trough will follow behind it this week into the weekend. Other troughs will find an easy path through western Canada and the Southwest this weekend and into next week while the ridge backs up a bit into the Central.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are differences in precipitation placement and timing, not unusual for this type of pattern for this time of year. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

An old front will likely remain active with showers across the South this weekend and possibly through next week as well. Systems moving through western Canada will likely extend showers through the Plains and maybe the Midwest next week. Temperatures will generally be rising above normal for much of the country except around Texas where showers and cloud cover would keep temperatures down a bit.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers developed over the weekend and Monday, bringing some areas of heavier rain to some dry areas in the region, particularly in the Dakotas. Temperatures are well below normal, producing some frosts and freezes the next morning or two. Temperatures will start to moderate in the middle of the week while showers will move back in with a small system moving through Wednesday through Friday. Though the frosts could be somewhat damaging to any emergent soybeans, the bouts of rain are favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front brought areas of heavy rain and severe weather across Nebraska and Kansas on Sunday and Monday, resulting in many tornadoes and wind damage. The front will push southward and stall around Texas, where showers will occur well into next week. Another system will move through Wednesday through Friday with more scattered showers farther north. Though showers will be scattered and hit-or-miss, there will be some beneficial rainfall this week that will help to increase soil moisture for emergent corn and soybeans. However, cold air caused frosts in the northwest on Tuesday that may repeat on Wednesday, which may cause damage to emergent crops and winter wheat there.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front has been bringing through areas of heavy rain and severe weather over the weekend into Monday. A system now moving into Ontario will push the front through the region on Tuesday with a final round of showers and thunderstorms along the Ohio River on Wednesday. To go along with the severe weather, flooding has been an issue in some areas as well, particularly around Missouri, which has been hit multiple times. Otherwise, the rainfall is largely favorable for increasing or maintaining soil moisture. After a couple of drier days, another weaker system will move through late Thursday through Saturday with more scattered showers. The front to the system could bring showers to southern areas through next week at times as well. As long as flooding and severe weather are not widespread, the pattern is favorable for the end of May.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front will move into the region this week and stall, bringing through daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through a good portion of next week. Though some severe weather and flooding may be possible, the pattern should support increasing soil moisture and reducing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Cold air that moved in late last week caused areas of frosts and freezes over the weekend that continues for another couple of days. To go along with recent precipitation, the cold is slowing down planting progress, which is slow and has a short window this year. Occasional showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the region through the end of the week. That should help to increase soil moisture, but will not be heavy enough to discourage planting. More bouts of rain are forecast for next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): A front moved into the south over the weekend, bringing some areas of heavy rain to Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana. Very little of the safrinha corn areas have received rainfall. Wheat planting continues to increase across the far south and is dependent on these showers to move in to support root growth. Another little system will bring some showers to Parana later this week with more showers possible across the far south next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. Colder temperatures this week may produce frosts at times, but are not a threat to corn, soybeans, or wheat.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level system brought widespread rainfall across the continent last week and weekend, including over the drier northeast, improving conditions there. Other systems are bringing showers to northern Europe over the next few days, overall favorable for wheat and corn. A few colder days over the weekend produced some very patchy frosts, but were not widespread enough to cause much concern. Temperatures are increasing this week and may cause some stress if there are drier areas out in the west. Drier weather is generally expected late this week through next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level low-pressure system slid into the region over the weekend continues to bring showers throughout the week. Drier areas in the west will have more beneficial coverage and amounts, overall, a very favorable situation for much of the region.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought some areas of heavy rainfall to the east this past weekend. That is increasing soil moisture, buying winter wheat and canola areas a couple of weeks. However, the overall theme is dry with a developing El Nino over the winter and into next spring, which is a more persistent negative force for the winter crops.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system this weekend produced some heavy rain in some northern and central areas, but flooding was outside of the primary growing regions. Showers will leave the North China Plain on Tuesday. Some areas in the northeast continue to be on the drier side, unfavorable for corn and soybeans. Despite the recent rain, shower chances are still lower than favorable for much of central and northeastern China. Southern canola areas have been in much better shape this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday, far south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal northwest and above normal southeast.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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