DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...110 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...15 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...WILKES BARRE, PA 1.35 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is spreading through the U.S., a small trough is in the Canadian Prairies, and another trough is in the North Pacific. The Prairies trough will move eastward through Canada through the weekend. The Pacific trough will move into the West this weekend with the ridge shifting to the East. The trough will move over the top of the ridge through Canada next week with more ridging taking its place at the end of next week. And another trough is likely to move into the West next weekend or early the following week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though there are differences with the active pattern next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the north early next week with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Its cold front may be quite active as it slowly moves through the country next week. Showers may continue along the old boundary across the far south next weekend while some scattered showers move across the north next weekend. Colder air will settle in behind the front for a few days next week, but warmth will build back in next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Higher temperatures and drier conditions have allowed for lots of fieldwork to be completed, though breezy winds have been a problem at times. A system moving through on Sunday and Monday will bring more widespread precipitation, which may include some snow mixing in, halting fieldwork. The precipitation should be favorable for increasing soil moisture. Temperatures behind its cold front will be significantly cold for several days next week, resulting in frosts and freezes for a few days. Despite that, crops are not very vulnerable to frosts in most areas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved into the region on Thursday and produced some thunderstorms. The front is stalling through Saturday and more thunderstorms should form near it. A system moving to the north this weekend will get more widespread showers and thunderstorms to form as its cold front slowly pushes through the region next week. Some heavier precipitation will be possible in Nebraska, which would ease drought, and showers will be possible through all areas of the region, beneficial for increasing soil moisture. The front may stay active across the south at the end of next week. Cold air will flow in behind the cold front and there may yet be another risk of frost in the northwest for Monday and Tuesday.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will settle in the region through Saturday, producing batches of showers and thunderstorms and some severe weather. A system will form along that front and push through the region Sunday through Tuesday in a couple of bursts. Showers may linger longer through the region next week as well, producing plenty of rainfall for a lot of the region. While plenty of fieldwork has been done this week, the slow-moving system will likely cause some delays, but continue to support good soil moisture for most areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Soil moisture is much improved from a couple of weeks ago, but rainfall deficits are still large across much of the region. Drier weather continues through the weekend, but a front slowly moving through next week should bring through several rounds of good rainfall that should continue to increase moisture and relieve drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Warmer temperatures earlier this week have allowed for a lot of fieldwork to occur. However, a system continues to slowly move across the region through Friday, bringing widespread precipitation, some areas of snow, and a sustained burst of cold air that will linger through much of next week. That will produce frosts and freezes. It is unlikely to cause any damage to crops as very little of the newly planted crop is vulnerable, but does not help with emergence or additional planting progress. Showers are likely to continue in the colder air next week, which supports building soil moisture for the crop, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/WHEAT): Wheat planting should increase throughout the month across the south and moisture for establishment will depend on fronts moving up from Argentina. One of those fronts is forecast to bring some rain to the south this weekend and may get a few showers into central areas as well. Any rainfall northward will be beneficial, but most of the safrinha corn areas have already gone a month without rain and will need a lot of rain to make a difference. Only the far south has a chance at heavier rainfall, though.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybeans continue to see harvest advancing, a seasonally slow process through July. Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. Though a front will move through this weekend, it is forecast to be dry across most of the country. Colder temperatures behind fronts may produce frosts at times, but are not a threat to corn, soybeans, or wheat.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level system continues to build showers across the continent. That is producing some needed precipitation into the drier northeast, but may produce some patchy frost across the north for the next few days as well. Many winter wheat areas would be vulnerable should frosts occur. Though the upper low moves to the Black Sea this weekend, more showers are forecast to follow it through early next week. The rainfall is highly beneficial for most areas of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): An upper-level low-pressure system over Europe is bringing through waves of showers through next week, increasing moisture for wheat and corn. Most areas will welcome the rainfall as soil moisture has been improving this spring. But the showers may slow down corn planting.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Rainfall deficits across much of Australia are large and conditions are still dry for much of Australia's wheat belt. A system will bring showers through eastern areas this weekend into early next week. Though the showers will be helpful for increasing soil moisture a bit, the developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with fewer storm systems, creating poor weather conditions for winter wheat and canola during the heart of the season.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): The North China Plain and the northeast have been quieter this spring. That may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of either or winter wheat. Showers may increase this weekend into early next week with a system passing through, but the forecast is drier for the rest of next week. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, above normal north and below normal south Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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