Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent drought-reducing rainfall across the southern U.S., recent frosts in the Central Plains and Midwest, but a pattern change coming next week, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

COLD AIR LINGERING IN THE MIDWEST, SOME FROSTS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

Cold air settling into the Midwest this week has been bringing areas of frosts and freezes, which have been more concentrated across the north, but have also found their way into Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. The extent of crop damage is uncertain, though some has likely occurred and soybean replanting will be necessary. Below-normal temperatures continue into early next week that may cause a few more areas of frosts, particularly on Monday and maybe Tuesday. Periods of isolated showers will move through the region in the cooler air with a bigger system moving through on Tuesday into Wednesday. That system will be followed by warmer temperatures for later next week and especially next weekend, ending the risk of frost for the year. Active weather will continue through the rest of May most likely as well.

SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK

Recent precipitation has been relieving for some dry areas in the Central Plains, while frosts that followed may have caused damage to advanced wheat and emergent other crops. The risk for frost is over for the year now, but a bit late. Small disturbances will bring through some periods of isolated showers and thunderstorms throughout the region next week, but most areas are going to remain dry. Temperatures rising above normal next week could cause additional stress for areas in drought. The pattern will allow for more active weather starting next weekend, but the degree to which showers develop is a bit uncertain. Extreme dryness in the region needs a lot of rain to reduce drought, let alone eliminate it.

WARMER IN NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

Pockets of isolated showers are possible in the Northern Plains through Monday. Overall though, conditions have been and should continue to be dry enough for fieldwork. The lack of rain is not all that favorable as a lot of areas are dealing with drought or increasing dryness. Temperatures have not been favorable this week with frosts and freezes being fairly widespread. But the western ridge pressing into the area should gradually bring temperatures up more consistently next week. Regardless, prospects for good planting conditions are increasing as we get deeper into May, though there are some immediate concerns about enough moisture.

COLD AIR SLOWLY EASING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS

Frosts and freezes have been common in the Canadian Prairies this week, especially in the east. Western areas are warming up, though some cold may linger in the east into next week. Overall, the cold has been leading to more delays in spring planting. Even though precipitation has slowed down significantly, and showers are likely to be spotty through next week, soil moisture is very good in most areas and will help for early growth once the crop is planted. With temperatures rising next week, planting activity will be quite rapid during the middle of the month.

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN DELTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND

A front pushed through the Delta this week with areas of moderate rainfall. Recent heavy rain has been improving drought conditions, but large deficits remain. Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop through the weekend. Though these chances will be lower for heavy, drought-reducing rain, they will still continue the trend of reducing drought in the region. The process will take a long time to reduce these long-term deficits, even if the pattern remains busy through the month of May.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL THIS WEEKEND, FROSTS POSSIBLE SOUTH

A front will bring scattered showers to southern Brazil through the weekend, being heavy in the far southern corn-growing areas. The showers will wane as the front continues northward and fizzles out. Only a small portion of southern safrinha corn areas are expected to get rain, but it could be significant. Hot and dry conditions north of the front have been and continue to be unfavorable for filling corn in most areas. But cold air moving in behind the front may cause some patchy areas of frost across the far south Sunday through Tuesday.

NORTHEASTERN EUROPE GETTING MORE RAIN

Scattered showers have been spreading through Europe this week, getting some needed rain into the dry northeast. Another system will move into the west on Friday, spreading showers eastward this weekend and especially next week. Even more rain is forecast to move through the continent later next week and weekend. Overall, conditions are favorable for wheat on most of the continent or improving like areas in the northeast. Though showers may disrupt spring planting a bit, the overall effect is positive.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Periods of showers continue in the Black Sea region over the next couple of weeks. Rains are coming at a pace that is favorable for most areas, though western portions of Ukraine and Belarus could use more frequent rain. These areas seem to be the target of more of the systems coming out of Europe both this week and next, leading to overall good conditions.

BUILDING EL NINO UNFAVORABLE FOR AUSTRALIA

Even though there has been some rain recently, rainfall deficits are still large and conditions are still dry in much of Australia. Drier weather is expected through next week, as well. Overall conditions are poor for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. The developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with poor winter crops in Australia.

SOME DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

The North China Plain and the northeast continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Very limited showers through next week are not favorable either. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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