Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Recent drought-reducing rainfall across the southern U.S., more cold air causing frosts in the Central Plains and Midwest, and dryness in Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

COLD AIR IN THE MIDWEST, FROSTS POSSIBLE

A front brought through scattered showers to the Midwest on Monday and Tuesday. Cold air is moving in behind the front. Additional frosts and freezes are possible for the next few mornings, but will need the skies to be clear and winds to be calm in which to do so, though models have a mix of both the next couple of days. The region will remain active with smaller storm systems continuing to push through the region Thursday, Friday, this weekend, and next week. Overall, this should produce good conditions for emergence and early growth for crops in the ground, but may cause issues for those trying to plant.

HEAVY SNOW ENDING, COLD AIR CAUSING FROSTS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front moving through the Central and Southern Plains is bringing widespread precipitation that started on Tuesday and continues on Wednesday, but has turned to snow in Colorado and adjacent areas in Nebraska and Kansas. Amounts have been heavy, which would be damaging for winter wheat or any emerging corn and soybeans. Cold temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday could also cause damage. Temperatures will moderate for later this week and be above normal next week. Additional chances for showers will flow through the region this weekend and next week, though coverage looks sparse and amounts do not look heavy like the region needs for its deep drought.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND COLD IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Pockets of isolated showers will be possible in the Northern Plains into next week. Overall though, conditions should be dry enough for fieldwork. Temperatures have not been favorable this week with frosts and freezes being fairly widespread. A western ridge pressing into the area could bring temperatures up this weekend into next week. Regardless, prospects for good planting conditions are increasing as we get deeper into May.

COLD AIR SLOWLY EASING IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A strong cold front brought in another round of very cold air with frosts and freezes to the Canadian Prairies this week. Western areas will start to warm up by the end of the week, though some cold may linger in the east into next week. Overall, this is leading to more delays in spring planting. Even though precipitation has slowed down significantly, and showers will be spotty through next week, soil moisture is very good in most areas and will help for early growth once the crop is planted.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS EASING DROUGHT IN DELTA

Recent heavy rain has been improving drought conditions in the Delta, but large deficits remain. A front and system moving along it is producing more rain going into Thursday. Additional chances will be possible Friday, this weekend, and next week. This should continue to turn the momentum toward diminishing drought, though this will be a long process even if the rain continues deep into May.

FRONT MOVING THROUGH BRAZIL THIS WEEKEND, FROSTS POSSIBLE SOUTH

Some showers are possible across southern Brazil from a front moving in on Thursday night that continues through Sunday. Only a small portion of southern safrinha corn areas are expected to get rain. Hot and dry conditions are unfavorable for filling corn in most areas, but cold air moving in behind the front may cause some frosts across the far south Sunday through Tuesday.

DRY NORTHEASTERN EUROPE GETTING RAIN

Scattered showers are spreading eastward across Europe this week, getting some needed rain into the dry northeast. Another system will move into the west on Friday, spreading showers eastward this weekend and especially next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for wheat on most of the continent or improving like areas in the northeast. Though showers may disrupt spring planting a bit, the overall effect is positive.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION

Periods of showers continue in the Black Sea region over the next couple of weeks. Rains are coming at a pace that is favorable for most areas, though western portions of Ukraine and Belarus could use more frequent rain. They seem to be the target of more of the systems coming out of Europe both this week and next.

BUILDING EL NINO UNFAVORABLE FOR AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved across southeastern Australia over the weekend and were heavier than forecast. More showers are moving through Victoria on Wednesday. However, deficits are still large and conditions are still dry, though some time was bought for the wheat and canola crops. Overall conditions are poor for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. The developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with poor winter crops in Australia.

SOME DRYNESS CONCERNS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CHINA

The North China Plain and the northeast continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Very limited showers over the next 10 days is not favorable either. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring, but those have been diminishing lately as well.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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