DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A conglomeration of troughs continues across the Central and East, a ridge is still pushing into western Canada, and another trough is moving underneath the ridge into the Southwest. That trough will continue across the far south over the next few days.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The main trough complex may shift a bit to the east this week, but will largely stay intact through next week, getting fed by some additional disturbances moving over or through the western ridge.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have some differences in precipitation and timing. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A couple of smaller systems are likely to move through the country with scattered showers east of the Rockies this weekend with another couple for next week. Timing may change, but these systems are likely to be weaker with more concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms. A general warm-west and cold-east pattern is expected this weekend into next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...100 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW SUN...10 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 0.89 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A collection of troughs continues across the Central and East, a ridge is still pushing into western Canada, and another trough is moving underneath the ridge into the Southwest. That trough will continue across the far south over the next few days. The main trough complex may shift a bit to the east this week, but will largely stay intact through next week, getting fed by some additional disturbances moving over or through the western ridge.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but have some differences in precipitation and timing. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A couple of smaller systems are likely to move through the country with scattered showers east of the Rockies this weekend with another couple for next week. Timing may change, but these systems are likely to be weaker with more concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms. A general warm-west and cold east pattern is expected this weekend into next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers moved through this weekend and will also be possible this week into next week as well. Overall though, conditions should be dry enough for fieldwork. Temperatures are not favorable this week with some frosts and freezes. A western ridge pressing into the area could bring temperatures up this weekend into next week, but models could easily change that forecast. Regardless, prospects for good planting conditions are increasing.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers fell in parts of the region over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry and where rain fell, only light amounts were recorded. A front moving into the region on Monday will bring about more widespread precipitation for the middle of the week, including some moderate precipitation potential for the driest areas in Nebraska and Kansas, but will also be cold enough for snow in Colorado and adjacent areas in Nebraska and Kansas on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Amounts could be very heavy, which would be damaging for winter wheat or any emerging corn and soybeans. Cold temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday could also cause damage. Temperatures will moderate for later this week and next week. Additional chances for showers will flow through the region this weekend and next week, though coverage looks sparse and amounts do not look heavy like the region needs for its deep drought.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of showers moved through the region over the weekend, but were mostly light. Frosts also occurred on Saturday, which could have produced some damage to more advanced wheat and some emergent soybeans. More scattered showers and cold air will move through the region this week, targeting southern areas with the heaviest precipitation. Additional frosts and freezes may occur later this week, but will need the skies to be clear and winds to be calm in which to do so. Models currently have poor conditions for frost, but those may change later this week.

The region will remain active with smaller storm systems continuing to push through the region this weekend and next week. Overall, this should produce good conditions for emergence and early growth for crops in the ground, but may cause issues for those trying to plant.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent heavy rain has been improving drought conditions, but large deficits remain. A front and system moving along it will produce more rain and some severe chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional chances will be possible this weekend and next week, especially across the north. This should continue to turn the momentum toward diminishing drought, though this will be a long process even if the rain continues.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A few isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but warmer temperatures helped to melt the remaining snow and warm soils a bit. However, a strong cold front moved through on Sunday afternoon and evening and is bringing in another round of very cold air for the next few days, especially east. Western areas will start to warm up by the end of the week, though some cold may linger in the east into next week. Overall, this is leading to more delays in spring planting. Even though precipitation has slowed down significantly, soil moisture is very good in most areas and will help for early growth once the crop is planted.

BRAZIL (CORN): Some rain fell over the far south over the weekend, but missed a lot of the safrinha corn areas in Parana. Some showers are possible Monday and from a front moving in on Thursday night through Saturday. But those showers will be waning as the front moves into central Brazil, typical for this time of year. Hot and dry conditions are unfavorable for filling corn in most areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Corn and soybean continue to see harvest advancing, though it is a slow process for most of the country. Occasional rain may disrupt harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable. Soil moisture has been falling a bit ahead of the winter wheat planting, but conditions are still favorable. A system moving through Wednesday and Thursday should add some moisture to wheat areas.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers fell over western areas over the weekend and were heavy in some areas that needed it. Those showers will spread eastward this week, getting some needed rain into the dry northeast. Another system will move into the west on Friday, spreading showers eastward this weekend and especially next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for wheat on most of the continent, or improving like areas in the northeast. Though showers may disrupt spring planting a bit, the overall effect is positive.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some showers moved across the southeast this weekend, but most areas stayed dry and temperatures rose, with frosts becoming very limited. Periods of showers continue over the next couple of weeks. Rains are coming at a pace that is favorable for most areas, though western portions of Ukraine and Belarus could use more rain.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved across the southeast over the weekend and were heavier than forecast. However, deficits are still large and conditions are still dry, though some time was bought for the wheat and canola crops. A few more showers may hit Victoria on Wednesday, but drier conditions are still favored, producing overall poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. The developing El Nino in the Pacific has a correlation with poor winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): The North China Plain and the northeast continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Very limited showers over the next 10-14 days is not favorable either. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation this spring.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday.

Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to well below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, falling Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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