DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

Multiple troughs and disturbances are littering North America with the whole complex shifting into the Central and East. A ridge is pushing into western Canada. Another trough will move through the far south late this week and weekend and another trough will move over the western ridge and into the Canadian Prairies for the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Yet another trough will follow underneath that ridge next week as another goes over the ridge again. All of these features will feed a western ridge and eastern trough look for early May that is generally stormier and colder east of the Rockies.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A small system will bring batches of showers to northern areas on Sunday and Monday. Another will move through in the middle of next week, probably with more widespread precipitation through the country. Largely below-normal temperatures will exist east of the Rockies, a threat for some frosts at times.

A lot of moving parts will likely lead to changes in the forecast for the next two weeks at least.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...108 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...4 BELOW ZERO AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...CINCINNATI, OH 2.53 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

Multiple troughs and disturbances are littering North America with the whole complex shifting into the Central and East. A ridge is pushing into western Canada. Another trough will move through the far south late this week and weekend and another trough will move over the western ridge and into the Canadian Prairies for the weekend. Yet another trough will follow underneath that ridge next week as another goes over the ridge again. All of these features will feed a western ridge and eastern trough look for early May that is generally stormier and colder east of the Rockies.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A small system will bring batches of showers to northern areas on Sunday and Monday. Another will move through in the middle of next week, probably with more widespread precipitation through the country. Largely below-normal temperatures will exist east of the Rockies, a threat for some frosts at times.

A lot of moving parts will likely lead to changes in the forecast for the next two weeks at least.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers may move through into the weekend, but it should be largely dry. Temperatures will largely remain below normal through the first half of May, producing more consistent frosts and freezes. No damage is expected since planting has been slow for corn and soybeans, but the colder temperatures could cause slower planting or growth for wheat.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Batches of showers and thunderstorms continue for Wednesday and Thursday, but with low coverage and amounts expected. However, a system is forecast to move across the south on Thursday and Friday with more of a shield of showers and thunderstorms. Widespread areas of rain are looking likely, which will improve soil moisture for some areas of the southwestern Plains. But the drought is deep and intense and will not be eliminated from this one storm. Another storm system is looking likely for next Tuesday and Wednesday, which may be helpful as well. The more active weather could slow planting progress a bit, but that has been off to a very rapid pace thus far. Cold temperatures at time will be creating frosts through next week. The degree to which depends on cloud cover and winds. Clear skies and calm winds could cause frosty morning temperatures, which may cause damage to winter wheat and emerging soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another round of rain moved into the south on Tuesday and will continue across the east on Wednesday. Showers will continue across the region through Monday, but with lower coverage and amounts than we have seen recently. That should allow some wet areas to drain and planting to pick up. However, it will also be cold, with potential for frosts across the north if skies clear out and winds calm down. Another big system will be possible in the middle of next week that could bring more heavy rain and severe weather.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Periods of heavy rain have been moving through this week and continue into Saturday before getting a break. The rain is more than welcome, easing the extreme drought in the region. However, rainfall deficits are incredibly large and will take much more rain to significantly reduce. There will be more chances next week and beyond to continue the trend of reducing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Cold air sitting in the region will moderate a bit over the next few days, but more cold air is forecast to move in over the weekend and especially next week. The cold is causing issues this season as snow is sticking around later and soils are still relatively cold, if not snow-covered. This is causing a short planting window. Soil moisture is at least very good, which is favorable for once the crop is planted.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front has stalled out across the south, which is producing scattered showers for Parana in the South. Some showers will continue there into Monday. Central Brazil has gotten very hot and dry as the wet season has come to an end a couple of weeks early. The country will see if fronts moving up from Argentina can be of some help for occasional rainfall, but soil moisture will be running out soon, a poor sign for safrinha corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Crops continue to mature and harvest is increasing across the country. Occasional rain may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Dry conditions in the northeast have not been favorable for winter wheat and more rain is needed. Additional showers will move across western Europe throughout the week and weekend and should push eastward next week. Conditions for wheat development and corn planting are overall favorable for most of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Cooler temperatures will be around all week, but frosts will mainly occur over the less developed places in the north. Southern areas that are farther along may have some damage, but the overall prospect for widespread frost and freeze damage is low. Occasional rain showers will move in throughout the week and the clouds that come with it should limit the overall low temperatures from falling too much. The cold could discourage corn planting, however. Temperatures should moderate next week, though the showers are likely to continue.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry weather continues to be the theme for eastern Australia, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola planting. Some showers have been and will continue to move through the west, but are only producing moderate conditions at best. We should see showers across the east this weekend, but widespread heavy rain is not in the forecast. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): The North China Plain and the northeast continue to be drier, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal north and near to above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Spotty showers northwest through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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