DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a weak ridge in the East with multiple troughs and disturbances over the West and Central. These troughs will shift eastward this week and a ridge will form in western Canada. Another trough will move through the far south late this week and weekend, producing a system and another trough will move over the western ridge and into the Canadian Prairies for the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Active weather will continue next week with more troughs and disturbances moving through the country.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the far south this weekend, spreading showers and thunderstorms across some very dry areas of the country. Another small system will bring batches of showers to northern areas this weekend into early next week. Largely below-normal temperatures will exist east of the Rockies, a threat for some frosts at times. A lot of moving parts will likely lead to changes in the forecast for the next two weeks at least.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...102 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...9 AT BURGESS JUNCTION, WY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...FORT SMITH, AR 1.10 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a weak ridge in the East with multiple troughs and disturbances over the West and Central. These troughs will shift eastward this week and a ridge will form in western Canada. Another trough will move through the far south late this week and weekend, producing a system and another trough will move over the western ridge and into the Canadian Prairies for the weekend. Another trough will follow underneath that trough next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move across the far south this weekend, spreading showers and thunderstorms across some very dry areas of the country. Another small system will bring batches of showers to northern areas this weekend into early next week. Largely below-normal temperatures will exist east of the Rockies, a threat for some frosts at times. A lot of moving parts will likely lead to changes in the forecast for the next two weeks at least.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend, especially with a system moving through on Sunday. Those showers exit on Monday, which includes some snow as well. Showers may stick around but will be isolated for the rest of the week. That is ahead of a system that will spin around in the Canadian Prairies this weekend that will bring more showers through. Temperatures will largely remain below normal through the first half of May, producing more consistent frosts this week and possibly next week as well. No damage is expected since planting has been slow for corn and soybeans, but the colder temperatures could cause slower planting or growth for winter wheat.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Batches of showers and strong thunderstorms moved through this weekend, but missed southwestern areas that are in deepening drought. Occasional showers will move across the region throughout the week, but will favor the north and east. Some of these areas will gladly take the precipitation, but dryness is a big issue in the southwest. However, a system is forecast to move across the south on Thursday and Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Widespread areas of rain are looking likely, which will improve soil moisture. But the drought is deep and intense, which will not be eliminated from this one storm. There is some indication that the south will be the target for more systems in early May, which may be helpful as well. The more active weather could slow planting progress a bit.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved through eastern areas on Friday and another system moved into the west on Sunday. That system will move across the region into early Tuesday, with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is looking likely across the middle of the region on Monday afternoon and evening. Another system will move across the south on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing through needed precipitation for drier areas in that part of the region. Occasional showers will move through later this week and into next week as well. Temperatures will fall below normal this week, being largely below normal for the first half of May. Occasional periods of frost will be possible, mostly across the north, but could hamper planting progress, or cause some frost damage.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Heavy rain and thunderstorms moved through on Friday and Saturday, bringing some much-needed heavy rain through the region. Other periods of precipitation will occur throughout the week, bringing more needed rainfall. However, despite the rain, the drought is deep and the deficits are extremely large. The prospects for more rain extend into next week as well, but will need to be wetter for longer than that to significantly ease drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy snow fell in Alberta and Saskatchewan late last week while very cold air settled into the region as well. The cold air will moderate a bit by later this week, but more cold air is forecast to move in over the weekend. The cold is causing issues this season as snow is sticking around later and soils are still relatively cold, if not snow-covered. The pattern in early May does not favor the region, and a short planting window is happening this year. Soil moisture is at least very good at this time of year, which is favorable for once the crop is planted.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front has stalled out across the south, which produced scattered showers over the weekend. Some showers will continue there early this week and then again late this week. Central Brazil has gotten very dry as the wet season has essentially come to an end a couple of weeks early. The country will see if fronts moving up from Argentina can be of some help for occasional rainfall, but soil moisture will be running out soon, a poor sign for safrinha corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Crops continue to mature and harvest is increasing across the country. Occasional rain may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest at times, but conditions are overall favorable.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Some showers moved through the northeast and Spain this weekend. Dry conditions in the northeast have not been favorable for winter wheat and more rain is needed. Additional showers will move across western Europe throughout the week and should push eastward this weekend and next week. Conditions for wheat development and corn planting are overall favorable for most of the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers again moved across the region over the weekend, but we also saw temperatures dropping. Cooler temperatures will be around all week, but frosts will mainly occur over the less developed places in the north. Southern areas that are farther along may have some damage, but the overall prospect for widespread frost and freeze damage is low. Occasional rain showers will move in throughout the week and the clouds that come with it should limit the overall low temperatures from falling too much. The cold could discourage corn planting, however.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry weather continues to be the theme for eastern Australia, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola planting. Some showers have been and will continue to move through the west, but are only producing moderate conditions at best. We may see showers across the east this weekend, but widespread heavy rain is not in the forecast. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers fell across the North China Plain and the northeast over the weekend, but these areas have been drier since last fall. Drier conditions are likely here this week, which may be favorable for corn and soybean planting, but not for development of wheat. Canola areas in the south-central are in better shape from more consistent precipitation.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday.

Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, below normal Tuesday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northwest through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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