DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge getting squeezed out of the Great Lakes with a trough in the Canadian Prairies and another in the Pacific. The Prairies trough will remain stationary into next week. The Pacific trough will move underneath it this weekend into early next week, creating a storm system along the way.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move underneath the combined northern trough later next week. The entire trough complex will shift to the East while ridging will move into the West up through western Canada late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS is slower with the systems than the European next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Showers will probably be found across an old front across the south early-to-mid next week. Another system should move from the Southern Plains through the Southeast late next week. That will bring needed precipitation to a lot of the drought areas that continue to get worse. But it will also spread cold air sitting over the Northern Plains through more of the country for later next week and weekend. Frosts will be possible deeper south into the country into early May.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...102 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...11 AT 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...HELENA, MT 0.50 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge getting squeezed out of the Great Lakes with a trough in the Canadian Prairies and another in the Pacific. The Prairies trough will remain stationary into next week. The Pacific trough will move underneath it this weekend into early next week, creating a storm system along the way. Another will do something similar for later next week. The entire trough will shift to the East while ridging will move into the West up through Canada late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, though the GFS is slower with the systems than the European next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Showers will probably be found across an old front across the south early-to-mid next week. Another system should move from the Southern Plains through the Southeast late next week. That will bring needed precipitation to a lot of the drought areas that continue to get worse. But it will also spread cold air sitting over the Northern Plains through more of the country for later next week and weekend. Frosts will be possible deeper south into the country into early May.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is spinning across the Canadian Prairies and will bring through some scattered showers into Saturday. It is also building in some cold air. More showers will occur from a system passing by to the south on Sunday and Monday. The cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature and more consistent frosts and freezes.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front moved through on Thursday with strong thunderstorms over eastern areas. Cold air across the north will be common into early May. Though additional thunderstorms will develop across the east on Saturday, a better chance for precipitation comes with a system moving through on Sunday. Precipitation should be widespread across the north, delivering needed rainfall to Nebraska. Another system is forecast to get southern areas with widespread rain in the middle-to-end of next week. Colder air will flow through more of the region behind this system. Though the rainfall should be somewhat beneficial, deficits and drought are increasing and have become a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost going into early May.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will continue to move through on Friday, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, but also bringing in some cooler air to the west. Another system will move through on Monday into Tuesday, with more widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cooler air through the region. Even colder air will push through later next week, which may cause some areas of frosts and freezes into early May. The colder forecast may also slow down planting progress.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drought is a major concern for this season, but there are multiple chances for precipitation moving forward. A front moving through on Friday into Saturday could bring through some needed showers. Two more fronts will move through next week with scattered showers as well. But despite the chances for rain, the drought is deep and deficits are extremely large. A long, sustained wet pattern will be needed to significantly ease the drought.

There is time and the long-range forecast is somewhat favorable, but there is a long way to go.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moved into the region on Wednesday and will linger through the weekend, creating widespread precipitation. Rain has turned to heavy snow in Saskatchewan and Alberta on Friday, leading to some deep accumulation. The system is also bringing through a steady pool of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows should be expected, which may or may not affect production.

Soil moisture across most of the region is rather favorable once planting does begin.

BRAZIL (CORN): Spotty showers continue around Mato Grosso, but much of central Brazil will remain dry as the wet season rainfall has essentially come to an end a couple of weeks early. A front is stalling across the south and will produce periods of showers for Rio Grande do Sul and Parana at times through next week. Much of the safrinha corn acreage will be dry, though. The country will then rely on fronts to bring through extra moisture as corn is now pollinating for the next couple of weeks. The forecast is only calling for these fronts to move into the far south. When it is not raining, temperatures are very high, creating additional stress. The lower soil moisture built up this wet season will soon be depleted, a poor outlook for safrinha corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Crops continue to mature and the rainfall is becoming less and less important with each passing day. Occasional rain may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Some showers will move through eastern areas this weekend.

Though it won't be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take what it can. Additional showers have been moving across Spain and continue into next week as well. Drier conditions elsewhere should allow for some significant planting, but are not much of a concern for winter wheat, which has fairly good soil moisture across most of the continent. But if rain does not fill back in during early May, there could be some issues developing. Current forecasts are favorable for rain, but uncertain.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers continue through next week, being overall favorable for winter wheat as soil moisture continues to increase this spring. However, it is also colder through next week with reinforcements coming every couple of days. Despite that, temperatures will not be extremely cold and wheat should continue to develop at a somewhat normal pace. It may discourage corn planting some, however.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry weather continues to be the theme for eastern Australia, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola planting.

Some showers have been and will continue to move through the west, but is only producing moderate conditions at best. The country just needs more rain. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers have recently fallen on the North China Plain. The rainfall is needed for winter wheat as it has been drier this spring. Canola areas in the south-central continue to get good rainfall. But the northeast has been cooler and drier for corn and soybean planting. Some showers may go through this weekend, but more would be preferred.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northwest through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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