DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central with troughs in the Rockies and Canadian Prairies. The two troughs are combining and will sit in the Prairies into next week. Another trough currently in the Pacific will move underneath the trough this weekend into early next week, creating a storm system along the way.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move underneath the combined northern trough later next week. The entire trough complex will shift to the East while ridging will move into the West up through Canada by the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

After a system leaves the Midwest early next week, another will follow behind it, moving from the Southern Plains through the Southeast most likely. That will bring needed precipitation to a lot of the drought areas the continue to get worse. But it will also spread cold air sitting over the Northern Plains through more of the country for later next week and weekend. Frosts will be possible deeper south into the country in early May.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...99 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...14 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...YAKIMA, WA 0.85 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Central with troughs in the Rockies and Canadian Prairies. The two troughs are combining and will sit in the Prairies into next week. Another trough currently in the Pacific will move underneath the trough this weekend into early next week, creating a storm system along the way.

Another will do something similar for later next week. The entire trough will shift to the East while ridging will move into the West up through Canada.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

After a system leaves the Midwest early next week, another will follow behind it, moving from the Southern Plains through the Southeast most likely. That will bring needed precipitation to a lot of the drought areas that continue to get worse. But it will also spread cold air sitting over the Northern Plains through more of the country for later next week and weekend. Frosts will be possible deeper south into the country in early May.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is moving through on Thursday, bringing through scattered showers but also some colder air.

Accumulating snow will be possible in Montana. The system will stall in the Canadian Prairies and may bring occasional showers into the weekend. More showers will be likely from a system passing by to the south on Sunday. The cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature and more consistent frosts and freezes.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through on Thursday and bring in some more cold air that is forecast to be common into early May, especially across the north. Scattered showers will develop along the front, but will miss drier areas in the west. Though additional thunderstorms will develop across the east on Saturday, a better chance for precipitation comes with a system moving through on Sunday.

Precipitation may be widespread across the north, delivering needed rainfall in Nebraska. Another system is forecast to get southern areas with widespread rain in the middle of next week. However, deficits and drought are increasing and becoming a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost going into early May.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through on Thursday and Friday, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, but also bringing in some cooler air to the west. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday, with more widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cooler air through the region. Even colder air will push through later next week, which may cause some areas of frosts and freezes into early May. The colder forecast may also slow down planting progress.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drought is a major concern for this season, but there are multiple chances for precipitation moving forward. A front moving through on Friday into Saturday could bring through some needed showers. Two more fronts will move through next week with scattered showers as well. But despite the chances for rain, the drought is deep and deficits are extremely large. A very wet pattern will be needed to significantly ease the drought. There is time and the long-range forecast is somewhat favorable, but there is a long way to go.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moved into the region on Wednesday and linger through the weekend, creating widespread precipitation.

Rain will turn to heavy snow, especially in Saskatchewan, for Thursday and Friday. The system will also bring through another round of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows seem all but certain at this point.

BRAZIL (CORN): Spotty showers continue around Mato Grosso, but much of central Brazil will remain dry as the wet season rainfall has essentially come to an end a couple of weeks early. A front is stalling across the south and will produce periods of showers for Rio Grande do Sul and Parana at times through next week. Much of the safrinha corn acreage will be dry, though. The country will then rely on fronts to bring through extra moisture as corn is now pollinating for the next couple of weeks. The forecast is only calling for these fronts to move into the far south. When it is not raining, temperatures are very high, creating additional stress. The lower soil moisture built up this wet season will soon be depleted, a poor outlook for safrinha corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Crops continue to mature and the rainfall is becoming less and less important with each passing day. Occasional rain may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Some showers will move through eastern areas this weekend.

Though it won't be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take the scattered showers. Additional showers will move across Spain through the weekend as well. Drier conditions elsewhere should allow for some significant planting this week, but are not much of a concern for winter wheat, which has fairly good soil moisture across most of the continent. But if rain does not fill back in during early May, there could be some issues developing.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers continue into next week, being favorable for winter wheat as soil moisture continues to slow increase this spring. However, it is also colder through next week with reinforcements coming every couple of days. Despite that, temperatures will not be extremely cold and wheat should continue to develop at a somewhat normal pace. It may discourage corn planting some, however.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry weather continues to be the theme for eastern Australia, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola planting.

Some showers have been and will continue to move through the west, but is only producing moderate conditions at best. The country just needs more rain. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers have recently fallen on the North China Plain. The rainfall is needed for winter wheat as it has been drier this spring. Canola areas in the south-central continue to get good rainfall. But the northeast has been cooler and drier for corn and soybean planting. Some showers may go through this weekend, but more will be needed.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Monday.

East: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northwest through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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