DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge in the West and Central is pushing a trough off the East Coast.

Another trough is off the West Coast. The ridge will slide east, allowing the western trough to move into the West by Wednesday. Another trough will move through western Canada at the same time, combining to create a larger trough that will get stuck in the North-Central later this week for several days.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A new trough will enter the West this weekend and move underneath the Central trough into early next week. Another may follow behind it for the middle of next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move into the Central Plains on Sunday, moving across the Midwest on Monday. Widespread showers will occur with the system, which may include some meaningful amounts in the drier southwestern Plains, at least portions of it. Cold air in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains this weekend will tend to spread through more of the U.S. next week behind the system, though just how cold it will get remains uncertain. Another system may follow a more southern path for the middle-to-end of next week. If so, that could bringing more precipitation to drought areas across the Southern Plains, Delta, and Southeast.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...99 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW MON...4 AT 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF LUTSEN, MN, AND 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BIG BAY, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...SAN ANTONIO, TX 3.67 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

A ridge in the West and Central is pushing a trough off the East Coast.

Another trough is off the West Coast. The ridge will slide east, allowing the western trough to move into the West by Wednesday. Another trough will move through western Canada at the same time, combining to create a larger trough that will get stuck in the North-Central later this week for several days. A new trough will enter the West this weekend and move underneath the Central trough into early next week. Another may follow behind it for the middle of next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move into the Central Plains on Sunday, moving across the Midwest on Monday. Widespread showers will occur with the system, which may include some meaningful amounts in the drier southwestern Plains, at least portions of it. Cold air in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains this weekend will tend to spread through more of the U.S. next week behind the system, though just how cold it will get remains uncertain. Another system may follow a more southern path for the middle-to-end of next week. If so, that could bringing more precipitation to drought areas across the Southern Plains, Delta, and Southeast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though a few warm days are occurring early this week, a system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing through scattered showers but also some colder air.

Accumulating snow will be possible with that system, especially in Montana.

More showers will be possible on Sunday. The cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was dry and cold over the weekend, with many frosts and freezes in the north and west.

Extremely cold temperatures on Saturday morning may have caused damage to some of the wheat, or caused corn and soybean planters to sit in the barn a few extra days. Though it is warmer early this week, a front will move through on Thursday and bring in some more cold air that is forecast to be common into early May. Some showers will move through with the front, but will miss drier areas in the west. A better chance for precipitation comes with a system moving through on Sunday. Though it will be brief, precipitation may be widespread and cover some of the dry areas in the west. Another system may get southern areas in the middle of next week. However, deficits and drought are increasing and becoming a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold weather produced widespread frosts and freezes on Sunday and Monday, with some eastern areas a bit cold Tuesday morning as well. Damage to wheat may have been possible, but not likely to corn and soybeans as emergence is really low across the region.

After several warmer days this week, another front will move through on Thursday and Friday, producing scattered showers, but also bringing in some colder air, at least to the west. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday, with widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cold air through the region. The colder forecast may slow down planting intentions, as the colder regime will stick around into early May. The region will need to be on the lookout for frosts and freezes for the next couple of weeks yet.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers moved through on Saturday, but it was not the heavy rain that the region needed to reduce the increasing drought, which is becoming a major concern for this season. A front moving through on Friday into Saturday could bring through some needed showers to the north.

Another front should bring some showers through on Sunday and Monday. It is possible that showers move through in the middle of next week as well. But despite the chances for rain, it is coming at too slow of a pace to keep up with the increasing drought.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Though it is warm now, another system will move in on Wednesday and linger into the weekend, creating widespread precipitation, but as a mix of rain turning to heavy snow, especially in Saskatchewan. The system will also bring through another round of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows seem all but certain at this point, unless models make drastic changes to the forecast.

BRAZIL (CORN): Spotty showers continue around Mato Grosso this week, but much of central Brazil will remain dry. A front is moving into the far south, stalling and producing showers for Rio Grande do Sul and Parana at times. Much of the safrinha corn acreage will be dry as the wet season rainfall is coming to an end a little on the early side. The country will then rely on fronts to bring through extra moisture as corn is now pollinating for the next couple of weeks. The forecast is only calling for these fronts to move into the far south. When it is not raining, temperatures are very high, creating additional stress. The lower soil moisture built up this wet season will soon be depleted, a poor outlook for safrinha corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues with showers for Tuesday. Another system may bring some showers this weekend. Crops continue to mature and the rainfall is becoming less and less important with each passing day. It may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system continues showers in the east on Tuesday, which has hit some of the drier areas in the northeast with some needed precipitation, but not many. The system is bringing in some colder air for eastern areas. Some showers will move through eastern areas this weekend as well. Though it won't be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take the scattered showers. Additional showers will move across Spain, especially later this week and weekend. Drier conditions elsewhere should allow for some significant planting this week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers continue into next week, being favorable for winter wheat as soil moisture continues to slow increase this spring. However, it will also be colder this week with reinforcements coming every couple of days. Despite that, temperatures will not be extremely cold and wheat should continue to develop at a normal pace. It may discourage corn planting, however.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Showers moved through some southwestern areas on Monday, but drier conditions in the east continue the poor outlook for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. Though a few showers will go through the southwest again later this week, eastern areas are forecast to stay drier, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers fell across the drier North China Plain this weekend. A few more are moving through on Tuesday. The rainfall is needed for winter wheat as it has been drier this spring. Canola areas in the south-central continue to get good rainfall. But the northeast has been colder and drier for corn and soybean planting. Some showers may go through this weekend, but more will be needed.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, falling Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Sunday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers far south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers far south Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to well above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, mostly south.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday, mostly northwest. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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