DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the East and a ridge in the West and Central. Another trough is off the West Coast. The ridge will kick out the eastern trough over the next day or so and shift eastward, allowing the western trough to move into the West by Wednesday. Another trough will move through western Canada at the same time, combining to create a larger trough that will get stuck in the Central later this week for several days.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A new trough will enter the West this weekend and move underneath the Central trough into early next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move into the Central Plains on Sunday, moving across the Midwest on Monday. Widespread showers will occur with the system, which may include some meaningful amounts in the drier southwestern Plains, at least portions of it. Cold air in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains this weekend will tend to spread through more of the U.S. next week behind the system, though just how cold it will get remains uncertain.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...99 AT 4 MILES EAST OF NORTH SHORE, CA, AND GILA BEND, AZ

LOW SUN...4 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...SAN ANTONIO, TX 0.93 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the East and a ridge in the West and Central. Another trough is off the West Coast. The ridge will kick out the eastern trough over the next day or so and shift eastward, allowing the western trough to move into the West by Wednesday. Another trough will move through western Canada at the same time, combining to create a larger trough that will get stuck in the Central later this week for several days. A new trough will enter the West this weekend and move underneath the Central trough into early next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move into the Central Plains on Sunday, moving across the Midwest on Monday. Widespread showers will occur with the system, which may include some meaningful amounts in the drier southwestern Plains, at least portions of it. Cold air in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains this weekend will tend to spread through more of the U.S. next week behind the system, though just how cold it will get remains uncertain.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few streaks of snow moved through, but it was mostly dry and cold over the weekend. Though a few warm days are in the forecast early this week, a system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing through scattered showers but also some colder air. Accumulating snow will be possible with that system, especially in Montana. That cold air is expected to linger into early May, resulting in slower rises in soil temperature.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was dry and cold over the weekend, with many frosts and freezes in the north and west.

Extremely cold temperatures on Saturday morning may have caused damage to some of the wheat, or caused corn and soybean planters to sit in the barn a few extra days. Though it will be warmer early this week, a front will move through on Thursday and bring in some more cold air that is forecast to last into early May. Some showers will move through with the front, but will miss drier areas in the west. A better chance for precipitation comes with another system moving through on Sunday. Though it will be brief, precipitation may be widespread and cover some of the dry areas in the west. However, deficits and drought are increasing and becoming a major concern for this season. How cold the air will be will also be a concern as it could produce more areas of frost that could be a concern.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain and severe weather moved through on Friday, with weaker showers in the east on Saturday, and some spotty showers leftover on Sunday. Cold weather also settled in with widespread frosts and freezes. Damage to wheat may be possible, but not likely to corn and soybeans as emergence is really low across the region. After several warmer days this week, another front will move through on Thursday and Friday, producing scattered showers, but also bringing in some colder air, at least to the west. Another system will move through on Sunday and Monday, with widespread precipitation and spreading some more of the cold air through the region. Western areas may see drought, especially the northwest, while it is more uncertain farther east. The colder forecast may slow down planting intentions, however, as the colder regime will stick around into early May.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers moved through on Saturday, but it was not the heavy rain that the region needed to reduce the increasing drought, which is becoming a major concern for this season. Drier weather is expected most of the week, with a front moving through on Friday into Saturday that could bring through some needed showers. Another front should do something similar for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Despite this, widespread heavy rain that the region needs is not in the forecast going into early May.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Extremely cold air lingered into the weekend, though temperatures rose on Sunday. After a few warm days, another system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, creating widespread precipitation, but as a mix of rain and heavy snow, which will linger around the region into the weekend. The system will also bring through another round of cold air, a common theme this spring. That cold air is forecast to last into early May, creating slower rises in soil temperature and letting snow linger across the region for longer than preferred. Shorter planting windows seem all but certain at this point, unless models make drastic changes to the forecast.

BRAZIL (CORN): A few showers dotted Mato Grosso, but most of the country was dry over the weekend. Those spotty showers continue this week. A front will move into the far south this week, stalling and producing showers for Rio Grande do Sul. The rest of central Brazil will be drier and hotter this week, unfavorable for safrinha corn. The wet season rains have been shutting down early and the country will look to fronts to bring through showers from now on.

Mato Grosso may get lucky over the next couple of weeks, but the prospects are not good elsewhere.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved in on Sunday and will linger through Tuesday, producing scattered showers. Crops continue to mature and the rainfall is becoming less and less important with each passing day. It may disrupt the maturing process as well as harvest.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system moved through Europe over the weekend and continues showers in the east on Monday and Tuesday, which has hit some of the drier areas in the northeast with some needed precipitation, but not many. The system is bringing in some colder air for eastern areas, and occasional showers will move through as well. Though it won't be heavy rain that the northeast needs, it will take the scattered showers. Additional showers will move across Spain this week as well, though drier conditions elsewhere should allow for some significant planting this week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers continue into next week, being favorable for winter wheat as soil moisture continues to slow increase this spring. However, it will also be colder this week with reinforcements coming every couple of days. Despite that, temperatures will not be extremely cold and wheat should continue to develop at a normal pace. It may discourage corn planting, however.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was dry over the weekend, continuing the poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment. Though a few showers will go through the southwest this week, eastern areas are forecast to stay drier, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers fell across the drier North China Plain this weekend. A few more are forecast for Tuesday. The rainfall is needed for winter wheat as it has been drier this spring. Canola areas in the south-central continue to get good rainfall. But the northeast has been colder and drier for corn and soybean planting. Some showers may go through this weekend, but more will be needed.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, falling Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures below normal west and above normal east Saturday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers far south Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal north and above normal south Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday, mostly south. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday, mostly northwest. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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