DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...102 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW THU...9 AT 15 MILES WEST OF STANLEY, ID, AND 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF SUN VALLEY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...MILWAUKEE, WI 2.08 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the West and Canadian Prairies.

The trough will sweep through the continent over the next several days. The ridge will pop right back up behind the exiting trough next week while another trough moves into the West. The trough is forecast to get some help from another moving through western Canada next week as it splits into a couple of pieces. A northern section is now forecast to move through Canada and the northern U.S. for next weekend, ahead of a building ridge over northern Canada while a piece remains back in the Southwest.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but both changed dramatically for late next week. I will use a blend, but favor the GFS, which is more consistent from earlier this week.

A system is forecast to slowly move through the Plains and Midwest for late next week and weekend, maybe in two pieces. Widespread showers are still likely, though the chances for rain in the southwestern Plains through the Southeast has dropped. Colder air is still forecast to move in behind the system next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong cold front continues to move through on Friday, bringing through a bit of snow and a punch of some much colder air. Temperatures will rebound early next week, though, as more showers build across the region for mid-late week. The constant up-and-down temperatures are limiting the rise in soil temperature, which may have some additional cooler periods later next week and possibly into May as well.

Drought in the west and south will surely take any precipitation with the variable conditions.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drought continues to expand in the southwest as this part of the region continues to be bypassed by precipitation. A strong cold front will move through on Friday into early Saturday. This front may bring a mix of rain and snow to western areas, but amounts do not look heavy, instead favoring the southeast again with severe weather. Cold air will bring frosts and freezes over the weekend that may be damaging to more advanced wheat. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though. Models have moved away from a slow-moving system with widespread precipitation for next week, instead following a similar pattern of drier conditions for the southwest. The long-range forecast suggests multiple opportunities for southwestern areas to get some rain, but nothing is guaranteed, and the wheat crop will continue to battle harsh conditions until rain comes.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Waves of showers and thunderstorms have been moving through this week, favoring the Great Lakes with heavy rain and leaving the south near the Ohio River much drier. The rainfall has come with severe weather and heavy rain, limiting fieldwork, while other areas have seen soil temperatures rising enough to start planting. A strong cold front moving through on Friday and Saturday will bring a final round of showers and thunderstorms through, again with some severe weather. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front, producing frosts over large areas of the region for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though, and a slow-moving system is likely to produce more widespread precipitation later next week. The region is not out of the cold just yet though, as we may see colder temperatures working back in next weekend, and there are signals for cold in early May as well. While planting is off to a good start, the coming colder temperatures and heavy rain may cause some delays in planting.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drought continues to be a major issue in the region while planting moves along quickly. A front brought through some moderate rain to northern areas on Thursday, along with severe weather. A front moving through on Saturday should carry more widespread rainfall. Despite that, it will not be enough to reduce the drought in any significant way. The forecast for next week has changed, and while a system will likely move through next week with scattered showers, it has turned much drier than the forecast from just Thursday. If it indeed is just scattered showers, the drought will get worse.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Temperatures have been cold this spring and snow still exists across the north. A strong cold front moved through on Thursday, bringing accumulating snow and extremely cold temperatures. Most areas did not make it above freezing on Thursday and will not today while eastern areas stay cold through Saturday. Though temperatures rise early next week, we are likely to see them fall again later next week as another system moves through. The overall cold conditions are causing delays for rising soil temperatures, and the snow isn't helping either. If this continues into May, as currently forecast, there will be tighter planting windows this season.

BRAZIL (CORN): Showers continue to be isolated showers or completely non-existent through next week. Outside of Mato Grosso, which may have more consistent showers, much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dealing with very limited rainfall. A front may get showers into far southern Brazil early-to-mid next week, though, too. If rainfall will be more focused on fronts instead of wet season popup showers, as the forecast continues to suggest, this would likely be beneficial for southern corn areas only, and less beneficial for central Brazil. That could be concerning for corn as it begins pollinating into early May. When it is not raining, temperatures become very hot and stressful, too.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought heavy rain to the north earlier this week. Another front and system will slowly move through the country Sunday through early next week with more widespread precipitation. The usefulness of the rainfall continues to dwindle as even late-planted crops are maturing.

Harvest continues to progress for early-planted corn and soybeans, but the rain may cause some delays, flooding, and quality issues.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Showers have been limited this week, though most areas of Europe have good soil moisture for both winter wheat development and spring planting. The northeast is dry, however. A system and front will move through the continent Sunday into Tuesday and may get parts of Poland with some good rainfall. More systems are in line to at least provide some chances over the next several weeks.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers continue through next week, though they will be patchy. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter. Some cooler air will move in next week, but not be extremely cold.

Wheat should continue to develop at a normal pace and early corn planting should have largely favorable conditions.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry weather continues to produce poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment as that usually increases in April. Though some showers will move through the southwest, very little precipitation is in the forecast through next week, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain has been targeting south-central areas this spring, clipping canola areas with some good rainfall.

Wheat on the North China Plain remains unfavorably drier. Corn and soybean planting should begin shortly, but areas in the northeast are still a little too cold, and in need of some rainfall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through early Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Friday, falling Saturday, below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through early Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures falling Friday, below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday, more consistent northwest.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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