DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...98 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...14 AT BERTHOUD PASS, CO AND 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...CHICAGO, IL 2.32 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East, a disturbance in the Central, and a larger trough in the Pacific Northwest. The western Canada trough will sweep through the continent over the next several days. The ridge will pop right back up behind the exiting trough next week while another trough moves into the West.

That trough will slowly work eastward next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will slowly build across the middle of the country next week, producing widespread precipitation. It will likely pull down some colder air from Canada by next weekend as the system shifts east.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system and strong cold front will move through on Thursday and Friday, bringing through a mix of rain and snow and a punch of some much colder air. Temperatures may not make it above freezing on Saturday in northern North Dakota. Temperatures will rebound early next week, though, as more showers build across the region for mid-late week.

The constant up-and-down temperatures are limiting the rise in soil temperature, which may have some additional cooler periods later next week and possibly into May as well. Drought in the west and south will surely take the precipitation coming with the variable conditions, however.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Southeastern areas of the region have been very active this week, but western areas have remained dry as drought has continued to build. A strong cold front will move through on Friday into early Saturday. This front may bring a mix of rain and snow to western areas, but amounts do not look heavy, instead favoring the southeast again. Cold air will bring frosts over the weekend that may be damaging to more advanced wheat. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though, with a slow-moving system likely bringing more widespread precipitation to the region. That may include the dry areas in the west, but to what degree is uncertain.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Waves of showers and thunderstorms have been moving through this week, favoring the Great Lakes with heavy rain. The rainfall has come with severe weather and heavy rain, limiting fieldwork in areas where it has been raining, while other areas have seen soil temperatures rising enough to start planting. The active weather continues for the rest of the week, with a strong cold front moving through on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front, producing frosts over large areas of the region for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will pop right back up next week, though, and a slow-moving system is likely to produce more widespread precipitation later next week. The region is not out of the cold just yet though, as we may see colder temperatures working back in later next week or weekend, and there are signals for cold in early May as well. While planting is off to a good start, the coming colder temperatures and heavy rain may cause some delays in planting.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drought continues to be a major issue in the region while planting moves along quickly. A front moving through on Thursday may bring through a few showers and thunderstorms, but it'll be the front moving through on Saturday that should carry some widespread rainfall.

Despite that, it will not be enough to reduce the drought in any significant way. Prospects are a little more promising next week as a system slowly moves through the country, perhaps bringing through more widespread precipitation. If the forecast changes, though, conditions could worsen.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Temperatures have been cold this spring and snow still exists across the north. A strong cold front continues to drop south through the region on Thursday, bringing a mix of rain and accumulating snow, followed by extremely cold temperatures into the weekend.

Most areas may not make it above freezing into Saturday. Though temperatures rise early next week, we are likely to see them fall again later next week. The overall cold conditions are causing delays for rising soil temperatures, and the snow isn't helping either. If this continues into May, as currently forecast, there will be tighter planting windows this season.

BRAZIL (CORN): A system will bring more showers into the south and west on Thursday, but will quickly return to being isolated showers or completely non-existent. Outside of Mato Grosso, which may have more consistent showers, much of the safrinha corn growing areas will be dealing with very limited rainfall through next week. If rainfall will be more focused on fronts instead of wet season popup showers, as the forecast suggests, this would likely be beneficial for southern corn areas only, and less beneficial for central Brazil. That could be concerning for corn as it begins pollinating into early May.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved back into the north with heavy rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another front and system will slowly move through the country Sunday through early next week with more widespread precipitation. The usefulness of the rainfall continues to dwindle as even late-planted crops are maturing. Harvest continues to progress for early-planted corn and soybeans, but the rain may cause some delays, flooding, and quality issues.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Showers have been more limited this week, though most areas of Europe have good soil moisture for both winter wheat development and spring planting. The northeast is dry, however, and limited showers there into the weekend will not be helpful. However, a system and front will move through the continent Sunday into Tuesday and may get parts of Poland with some good rainfall. More systems are in line to at least provide some chances over the next several weeks.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Periods of showers continue through next week, though they will be patchy. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter. Some cooler air will move in next week, but not be extremely cold.

Wheat should continue to develop at a normal pace and early corn planting should have largely favorable conditions.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Dry weather continues to produce poor conditions for winter wheat and canola planting and establishment as that usually increases in April. Very little precipitation is in the forecast through next week, discouraging planting. A developing El Nino is not favorable for winter crops in Australia.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain has been targeting south-central areas this spring, clipping canola areas with some good rainfall.

Wheat on the North China Plain remains unfavorably drier. Corn and soybean planting should begin shortly, but areas in the northeast are still a little too cold, and in need of some rainfall.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through early Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, falling Saturday, below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north and southeast. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through early Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, falling Friday, below normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Spotty showers west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday, more consistent northwest.

Temperatures above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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