DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East and Central while a trough is moving along the Canadian border. Another trough in the Pacific will move into the Southwest this weekend and move through the country next week, challenging the ridge that will try to hold on over the East and will largely succeed.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Additional troughs will move into the West and challenge the eastern ridge later next week and into late April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through northern areas in the middle of next week with scattered showers. Another system may move through the country for late next week, but could wait for the weekend. Temperatures will be warm across the south and east, but some colder temperatures will sneak down from Canada behind the late week or weekend system.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...98 AT GILA BEND, AZ, EL CENTRO, CA, NORTH SHORE, CA, AND 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOPOCK, AZ

LOW THU...12 AT HETTINGER, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...OMAHA, NE 1.09 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East and Central while a trough is moving along the Canadian border. Another trough in the Pacific will move into the Southwest this weekend and move through the country next week, challenging the ridge that will try to hold on over the East and will largely succeed. Additional troughs will move into the West and challenge the eastern ridge later next week and into late April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through northern areas in the middle of next week with scattered showers. Another system may move through the country late next week, but could wait for the weekend. Temperatures will be warm across the south and east, but some colder temperatures will sneak down from Canada behind the late week or weekend system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few showers have moved through this week. Another system will move through this weekend with warmer air and some scattered showers into Monday and several impulses may bring showers through next weekend. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled front brought scattered showers on Thursday, which continues for Friday before lifting northward on Saturday as another system moves in. Several impulses will bring seemingly daily showers and thunderstorms through next week. However, they will come in batches that won't hit all areas. Some areas will see heavy rain while others may miss out completely. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting. Drought remains a problem despite the active pattern, though this pattern is forecast to remain in place for the next couple of weeks.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will remain active with showers through Friday, lifting northward on Saturday with some warmer air moving in. A system will bring more scattered showers throughout next week in several impulses, providing plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for spring planting. However, some areas may receive too much and ponding may be a concern for planting as well. Though temperatures are rising, and will be very warm this weekend into next week, the 50-degree soil temperature mark is only creeping into southern areas and frequent changes in air temperature will mean a slow progress northward for the rest of the month. The long-range forecast is calling for potential frosts in early May, which if realized could threaten some of the corn and soybeans that emerge by then.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drought is still heavily entrenched in the region. There may be some isolated showers into the weekend, but drier conditions this week have not be favorable for soil moisture. That will make planting and early growth more difficult. A few fronts will approach the region with some showers next week, but consistent, heavy rains are not in the forecast.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front brought through some more consistent showers this week, but it still under-performed for much of central Brazil. Another front will enhance showers across the south this weekend into early next week, but wet season rainfall does appear to be winding down early in central Brazil with lower coverage and amounts. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn, as wet season rainfall is counted on for decent corn yields. If the rains indeed shut down early, prior to the start of May, then losses should be expected.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall, as will another early-mid next week. That is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the corn and soybean crops that were planted late. Early-planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest and late-planted crops are approaching maturity in some cases as well.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A couple of smaller systems moved through Europe this week with more focused areas of precipitation across Spain and Germany. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting outside of the northeast, which is drier. Showers may be more widespread this weekend into next week as a system slowly passes through the continent. Northeast areas still look drier, though.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A stalled system continues to produce rounds of showers into early next week. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A few showers went through the south, but many areas have been dry this week. That is favorable for the remaining cotton and sorghum harvest, but the country would like to see more widespread heavy precipitation for winter wheat and canola planting. Drier conditions are forecast next week as well, discouraging wheat and canola planting.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though a few showers went through on Wednesday, showers have largely been missing the North China Plain this spring, which is a little concerning for winter wheat. Precipitation has been very low since last fall. And while global satellites seem to think that soil moisture is favorable there, they may be wrong. Systems will continue across south-central China, but favor more of the canola areas than the wheat areas on the North China Plain. Northeastern areas have also been dry ahead of the corn and soybean planting season.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Friday, above to well above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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