DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. The ridge will shift to the east midweek and allow systems moving through Canada to reach down into the northern U.S. as well.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move into the Southwest this weekend, with it moving through the country next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is likely to go through northern areas early next week with scattered showers. Another system may move through the country late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be warm across the south and east, but some colder temperatures will sneak down from Canada into the north behind the early week system.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...97 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...6 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...ORLANDO, FL 0.72 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. The ridge will shift to the east midweek and allow systems moving through Canada to reach down into the northern U.S. as well. Another trough will move into the Southwest this weekend, with it moving through the country next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is likely to go through northern areas early next week with scattered showers. Another system may move through the country late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be warm across the south and east, but some colder temperatures will sneak down from Canada into the north behind the early week system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain and snow moved through the region over the holiday weekend, though much of the snow has melted except over eastern North Dakota. Another system will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday with scattered showers. Another will move through this weekend with more scattered showers into early next week. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating more snow and slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Areas in the west have seen much less precipitation out of the more active weather pattern from last week and drought is increasing in some areas again. The pattern does seem to be a bit more favorable for a front to stall out in the region on Thursday and bring chances for showers to many of these western areas through at least early next week. The showers do look like batches of thunderstorms, which will mean some areas will see heavy rain while others are likely to be drier. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A large system moved through over the weekend with widespread heavy precipitation, including mixed precipitation over the far north. Areas in drought saw some of the heaviest precipitation, which should improve soil moisture for planting and early growth in much of the region. Colder temperatures early this week should hold back planting more than soil moisture at this point. A system will move through on Wednesday night and stall a front across the south for Thursday where showers may continue into the weekend, and perhaps lift back northward again as well.

With more showers expected next week as a system moves through, there is plenty of opportunities to have good soil moisture for planting. Some areas may have the opposite problem with too much rainfall that may cause delays.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front moved through on Saturday into Sunday and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some areas of heavy rain fell as well. With how deep the drought is in the region, the rainfall has certainly helped, but will not wipe away the drought. There may be some isolated showers at various times this week, but drier conditions this week should not be favorable for soil moisture.

BRAZIL (CORN): A front will move through over the next day or two and produce widespread showers across the south, and a brief burst of moderate rain across the central, but precipitation will become isolated again after it passes. A similar situation may repeat itself this weekend into early next week. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn as the end of the wet season rainfall is rather disappointing for many areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front brought widespread precipitation to the country over the last week, but that is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the corn and soybean crops that were planted late. Early-planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest. Another system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A couple of smaller systems will move through this week with more focused areas of precipitation, mostly across Spain and then Germany.

Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A system is stalling out and will produce rounds of showers for the rest of the week. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A few showers went through the south over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. That is favorable for the remaining cotton and sorghum harvest, but the country would like to see more widespread heavy precipitation for winter wheat and canola planting. Showers will be limited, but continue across the south for the next couple of days.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through the northeast over the weekend, but missed the North China Plain, which is a little concerning for winter wheat. Precipitation has been very low since last fall. And while global satellites seem to think that soil moisture is favorable there, they may be wrong. A couple of systems will move through this week, but favor more of the canola areas across the south-central than the wheat areas on the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers northeast. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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