DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. The ridge will shift to the east by midweek and allow systems moving through Canada to reach down into the northern U.S. as well.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move into the Southwest this weekend, with impulses of it moving through the country next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is likely to go through Canada early next week and may bring some showers to the Great Lakes. A larger system may move through the country for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will rise in the middle of next week, but should fall again behind the late-week system, at least in the Plains.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...98 AT 6 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OGILBY, CA, AND 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF WINTERHAVEN, CA

LOW SUN...4 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...CORPUS CHRISTI, TX 1.68 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a trough in the East and a ridge in the West. The ridge will shift to the east midweek and allow systems moving through Canada to reach down into the northern U.S. as well. Another trough will move into the Southwest this weekend, with impulses of it moving through the country next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is likely to go through northern areas early next week with scattered showers. Another system may move through the country for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will be warm across the south and east, but some cooler temperatures will sneak down from Canada into the north behind the early week system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain and snow moved through the region over the holiday weekend, though much of the snow has melted except over eastern North Dakota. Another system will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday with scattered showers. Another will move through this weekend with more scattered showers into early next week. The frequent rounds of precipitation will improve soil moisture, but colder temperatures are creating more snow and slower rises in soil temperature. Unless the pattern changes, it could be a shorter window for planting this spring.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another strong system pushed through over the holiday weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which were heavy across the east. However, areas in the west have seen much less precipitation out of the more active weather pattern from last week and drought is increasing in some areas again. The pattern does seem to be a bit more favorable for a front to stall out in the region on Thursday and bring chances for showers to many of these western areas through at least early next week. The showers do look like batches of thunderstorms, which will mean some areas will see heavy rain while others are likely to be drier. Mixed improvement should be expected, but not widespread improvement for winter wheat or significant increases in soil moisture for corn and soybean planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A large system moved through over the weekend with widespread heavy precipitation, including mixed precipitation over the far north. Areas in drought saw some of the heaviest precipitation, which should improve soil moisture for planting and early growth in much of the region. Some isolated showers will move through on Monday followed by some cooler air. The colder temperatures should hold back planting more than soil moisture at this point. A system will move through on Wednesday night and stall a front across the south for Thursday where showers may continue into the weekend and perhaps lift back northward again as well. With more showers expected next week as well, there is plenty of opportunity to have good soil moisture for planting. Some areas may have the opposite problem with too much rainfall that may cause delays that way.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front moved through on Saturday into Sunday and brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some areas of heavy rain fell as well. With how deep the drought is in the region, the rainfall has certainly helped but will not wipe away the drought. There may be some isolated showers at various times this week, but drier conditions this week should not be favorable for soil moisture.

BRAZIL (CORN): Isolated showers continued to fall in Brazil over the weekend but were not widespread or heavy enough for developing corn. A front will move through early this week and produce widespread showers across the south, and a brief burst of moderate rain across the central, but precipitation will become isolated again after it passes. A similar situation may repeat itself this weekend into early next week. Overall, this is unfavorable for developing safrinha corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front brought widespread precipitation to the country over the last week, but that is only favorable for the shrinking portion of the crop that was planted late. Early-planted corn and soybeans continue to go through harvest. Another system will move across the north this weekend with more rainfall.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system moved out of the southeast over the weekend, and a few showers passed through northern areas. A couple of smaller systems will move through this week with more focused areas of precipitation, mostly across Spain and then France and Germany. Despite the somewhat drier look this week, most areas of the continent have good soil moisture for winter wheat and early corn planting.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and another system moving in on Monday will produce more rounds of showers for the rest of the week. Soil moisture has slowly been improving since the winter, though it is not ideal in too many areas. The region would like to keep these scattered showers going or see more widespread heavy rains for the second half of April. No concerns are noted though at the moment.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A few showers went through the south over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. That is favorable for the remaining cotton and sorghum harvest, but the country would like to see more widespread heavy precipitation for winter wheat and canola planting. Showers will be limited, but continue across the south for the first half of the week.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers went through the northeast over the weekend, but missed the North China Plain, which is a little concerning for winter wheat. Precipitation has been very low since last fall and while global satellites seem to think that soil moisture is favorable there, they may be wrong. A couple of systems will move through this week, but favor more of the canola areas across the south-central than the wheat areas on the North China Plain.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday.

East: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.