DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East and troughs in the Plains and Pacific Northwest. The two troughs will move eastward through the country with storm systems over the next several days with the second one being a bit stronger and pushing the ridge off the East Coast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A new ridge will move into the middle of the country next week while more troughs move into the West.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is likely to go through Canada early next week and may bring some showers to the Great Lakes. A larger system may move through the country for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will rise in the middle of next week, but should fall again behind the late-week system, at least in the Plains.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...104 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...2 AT 31 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOREST CENTER, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...YOUNGSTOWN, OH 1.97 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East and troughs in the Plains and Pacific Northwest.

The two troughs will move eastward through the country with storm systems over the next several days with the second one being a bit stronger and pushing the ridge off the East Coast. A new ridge will move in behind it next week while more troughs move into the West.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system is likely to go through Canada early next week and may bring some showers to the Great Lakes. A larger system may move through the country for late next week and weekend. Temperatures will rise in the middle of next week, but should fall again behind the late-week system, at least in the Plains.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system moved in on Wednesday and continues with snow across the east on Thursday. One more system will move through on Friday and Saturday, offering widespread mixed precipitation and chances for heavy snow. While the precipitation will be welcome, it will be difficult to get any early fieldwork done for a little while. Temperatures will be colder and will largely last through next week as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A potent storm system moved through on Wednesday with widespread showers and some areas of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. The front to the system continues east on Thursday. Another system will move through for Friday and Saturday with much of the same. Despite this, precipitation across the southwest will be very limited to almost nothing at all and winds will be breezy around both storms. Drought has quickly been growing over the last couple of months and conditions in the west will only get worse. Though conditions for wheat are mixed, this is not a good situation for most areas. Systems may be more beneficial starting late next week, but no guarantees should be expected.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another system moved in on Wednesday and started to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. That system continues on Thursday, with significant freezing rain across the north.

Another system will do something similar for Friday and Saturday. Some heavy rain will occur, increasing soil moisture for planting and easing dryness, but will make it difficult to get out into the fields this week. A burst of colder air will follow early next week, but will be short-lived. Additional systems are forecast for late next week and weekend.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Dryness and drought are a major concern as spring planting increases in April. A front will move in on Thursday and another will go through this weekend. Despite chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms, it will not be enough to reduce drought for too many areas and next week is likely to be drier.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers in Brazil continue to be isolated through the weekend. The country needs more consistent heavy rainfall during the last month of the wet season for a good safrinha corn crop. A front moving up from Argentina next week may provide some more widespread showers, but is forecast to be a brief boost. Showers are forecast to go isolated again after it passes through. Overall, this is not a good situation for safrinha corn.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front will keep showers going through the weekend before moving north on Monday. Rain will be somewhat favorable, but only for late-planted crops as the early season corn harvest continues to march on and early-planted soybeans have started to be harvested as well. Some areas of flooding may cause harvest problems.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to produce scattered showers around the eastern Mediterranean into Friday, boosting moisture for winter crops. Other areas of the continent continue to be drier for the rest of the week.

Northeastern areas have seen a few showers, but need more. Meanwhile, Spain has been a bit drier, allowing them to recover from heavy rain over the winter.

More active weather is expected next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Waves of scattered showers continue in the region through next week. With soil moisture mixed around the region, the showers will be helpful as wheat continues to green up and thoughts turn toward spring planting. Some colder air will move in during the middle of next week and slow down growth. It may also produce some accumulating snow.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Heavy rain across western areas over the weekend helped to prep soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

Another disturbance moving through on Thursday and Friday will bring a few more showers there as well. Dryness in the east will favor cotton and sorghum harvest, but more rain is needed in these areas for wheat and canola planting.

Showers will be limited next week and favor western areas as well.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been moving along and south of the Yangtze River Valley lately, favoring some canola areas, but many wheat areas on the North China Plain have been drier since the winter. A system will move through on Friday and Saturday with some needed precipitation for northern areas, but showers will return to the south next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, falling Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal north and well above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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