DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East and troughs in Canada and the Pacific. Three separate ones will move through the country through the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

After a couple day's break, a similar pattern is forecast for next week, but with more limited western troughs.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar this week, but slightly different with systems next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through the country over the weekend with scattered showers, followed by a burst of cooler air. Temperatures should rise again next week for most areas, though the north may stay cooler. A system is likely to go through Canada early next week and may bring some showers to northern areas.

There is a lot of variability in the models to sort out for next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...101 AT 2 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CIBOLA, AZ

LOW MON...14 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 1.09 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East and troughs in Canada and the Pacific. Three separate ones will move through the country through the weekend. A similar pattern is forecast for next week, but with more limited western troughs.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar this week, but slightly different with systems next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through the country over the weekend with scattered showers, followed by a burst of cooler air. Temperatures should rise again next week for most areas, though the north may stay cooler. A system is likely to go through Canada early next week and may bring some showers to northern areas.

There is a lot of variability in the models to sort out for next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers went through on Monday and more are forecast for the rest of the week as two more systems move through the region through Saturday. While scattered showers will be welcome, it will include areas of snow and maybe some ice. It will be difficult to get any early fieldwork done this week. Temperatures will be colder as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The region will be active with fronts and systems moving through Saturday. Multiple rounds of precipitation are expected, but they will not hit all areas and are likely to miss the southwest where drought has quickly been growing over the last couple of months. Though conditions are mixed, this is not a good situation for most winter wheat areas. Northern areas could be in for some accumulating snow on a couple of occasions, and winds will be strong on some days this week as well.

Overall, this is a poor week to get any fieldwork done.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Three different systems and their fronts will continue periods of showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week. Some heavy rain will occur, increasing soil moisture for planting and easing dryness, but may make it difficult to get out into the fields this week. Some bursts of colder air should be enough to allow for some accumulating snow and freezing rain over northern areas Wednesday night and Thursday, and again Friday and Saturday.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Dryness and drought are a major concern as spring planting increases in April. A front will move in on Thursday and another will go through this weekend. Despite chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms, it will not be enough to reduce drought for too many areas.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Wet season showers in Brazil became isolated over the weekend and continue to be so through the weekend. The country needs more consistent heavy rainfall during the last month of the wet season for a good safrinha corn crop. But the forecasts are not favorable for that. They are more favorable for what remains of the soybean harvest, though.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers became heavy over southern Brazil this weekend, helping to increase soil moisture as crop conditions have largely stabilized. A slow-moving front will keep showers going for much of the week across the central and south before moving north this weekend. Rain will be somewhat favorable, but only for late-planted crops as the early season corn harvest continues to march on and early-planted soybeans have started to be harvested as well.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system continues to produce scattered showers around the eastern Mediterranean for the rest of the week, boosting moisture for winter crops. Other areas of the continent will be drier for the rest of the week.

Northeastern areas have seen a few showers, but need more. Meanwhile, Spain has been a bit drier, allowing them to recover from heavy rain over the winter.

More active weather is expected next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Waves of scattered showers continue in the region as a pair of systems move through. With soil moisture mixed around the region, the showers will be helpful as wheat continues to green up and thoughts turn toward spring planting.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Tropical Cyclone Narelle brought needed heavy rain through western areas over the weekend while eastern areas were dry. Some disturbances will move through this week, but precipitation will be limited and favor western areas that are preparing for wheat and canola planting. Dryness in the east will favor cotton and sorghum harvest, but more rain is needed in these areas for wheat and canola planting.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been moving through the Yangtze River Valley lately, favoring some canola areas, but many wheat areas on the North China Plain have been drier since the winter. Showers continue to target central and southern China for the next few days, but a system will move through on Friday and Saturday with some needed precipitation for northern areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to well above normal Tuesday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday, falling Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Monday, near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to well above normal Tuesday, below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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