Ag Weather Forum

As mentioned last week, https://www.dtnpf.com/…, we are in a very active weather pattern this week. Three separate storm systems are moving across the country through Easter weekend, which will bring widespread areas of heavy rain, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, and northern areas of ice and snow. With so much going on, it is best to stay up-to-date on the forecast, as changes to primary impacts will certainly develop throughout the week.

FIRST STORM CONTINUES SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDWEST TUESDAY

One of these systems has already started to bring scattered showers to the country on Tuesday, March 31. The main low-pressure system is moving along a stalled boundary eastward across the Midwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have popped up this morning, and some heavy rain has extended into the Northeast. Throughout the course of the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms will build near the front as it pushes a little farther south toward the Ohio River. Some of these storms could end up being severe across the Midwest, especially from central Illinois into western New York. All hazards are on the table, as the low-pressure system will give the support needed to produce a couple of tornadoes, as well as a risk of strong winds and some large hail.

The front of the system extends back into the Central Plains and a few showers and thunderstorms will develop there, too. Partially due to how dry it has been in the Western Plains, a dry-line -- a boundary between dry and moist air masses -- has developed through the Southern Plains, where thunderstorms may ignite later Tuesday. Severe chances are not as great as they are farther northeast, but there could be a few stronger storms there, especially in western Oklahoma.

Though there are chances for severe weather, and some of these thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours and areas of flooding, this is the weakest of the three storms.

SECOND STORM SYSTEM BRINGING HEAVY SNOW, ICE TO NORTHERN STATES WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY

A second storm system is moving into the West on Tuesday. It will move into the Plains on Wednesday, April 1, and then the Midwest on Thursday, April 2. This storm system will be much stronger than the first and bring about more widespread precipitation. It will grab onto the stalled boundary from the first system and lift it back northward, which will extend precipitation farther across the Midwest ahead of the system as well. Expect some areas of severe weather across the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday and across the Midwest on Thursday. Again, all hazards will be on the table, and there is more of a tornado threat in the Plains on Wednesday. Both days should feature thunderstorms that produce heavy precipitation, which may lead to localized flooding.

To go along with the threat of severe weather and heavy rain, temperatures across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will be cold enough to support frozen precipitation. However, that is likely to come as a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. The Dakotas and northern Minnesota are expected to see the most snow out of the system. Six to 10 inches of snow are possible where the snow sets up. The most likely area for the heaviest snow is from central South Dakota through the arrowhead of Minnesota.

Just south of this band of snow, temperatures at the surface will be cold, while temperatures aloft will support rain. The result should be a mix of freezing rain and sleet from southeastern South Dakota through southern Minnesota and the northern halves of Wisconsin and Michigan. If there is less mixture and more freezing rain, it could mean significant icing over a quarter of an inch in these areas. If there is any good news, winds will not be particularly strong where the snow and ice are forecast. Breezy winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible but would not cause blizzard conditions and are unlikely to cause much damage to infrastructure where ice occurs. But despite that, there will be significant travel implications for the region.

Winds on the warm side of the system may still be breezy, but only in the 30- to 40-mph range. That may still be enough to cause issues for the Plains, where wildfires have been frequent and costly lately. See more about the wildfire situation here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

THIRD STORM SYSTEM IS SOMETHING LIKE THE SECOND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

The third storm in the series for this week will come right on the heels of the second and follow a similar path with similar impacts for Friday, April 3, and Saturday, April 4. The system will move through the Plains on Friday, and the Midwest on Saturday, causing travel issues again for northern areas for the Easter holiday weekend.

Snow may be more widespread than with the second storm, however. Snow will start out in Montana and Wyoming, spreading across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota on Friday into Saturday. Another round of 6 to 10 inches appears likely in this region and may overlap parts of the previous system, leading to some significant snowfall totals.

Much like the second storm, this one may also feature freezing rain potential as well. But models are less likely to produce a widespread swath of freezing rain, currently targeting southeastern South Dakota and northern Wisconsin and Michigan with the greatest risks of freezing rain. Winds are forecast to be relatively calm during this event again as well, leading to lower issues for infrastructure, but coming at a bad time for travelers.

In the warmer part of the system, we should again find potential for severe weather. And like the second storm, the hazards are pretty similar. A band of strong to severe storms is forecast to develop from central Texas to Iowa on Friday. The cold front to this system will be much sharper than the previous one, though, as it produces a severe threat from eastern Texas to Michigan and Ohio for Saturday. All hazards again will be possible.

As the sharp cold front pushes through the rest of the country on Sunday, it will be pulling down some of that colder air that is lingering across the north and Canada. Temperature changes will be quite significant; a drop of at least 20 degrees is likely across southern zones. While not extremely cold by April standards, the sharp drop will be quite noticeable.

To stay up to date with weather conditions and your local forecast for free from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/….

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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