Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Growing drought in the Central and Southern Plains, active weather this week, heavy rain in southern Argentina, and isolated showers in Brazil are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

THREE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Temperatures sharply fell late last week in the Midwest, then rose again over the weekend. The up-and-down nature should continue this week with at least three separate disturbances moving through. They will create plenty of opportunities for precipitation, increasing soil moisture for planting, but may make it difficult to get out into the fields this week. Some bursts of colder air should be enough to allow for some accumulating snow over northern areas Wednesday night through Thursday, and again this weekend.

SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT NOT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN

Temperatures rose quickly in the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, but will be all over the board with multiple systems moving through this week. Though multiple rounds of precipitation will go through, they will not hit all areas and are likely to miss the southwest, where drought has quickly been growing over the last couple of months. Northern areas could be in for some accumulating snow on a couple of occasions, and winds will be strong on some days this week as well. Overall, this is a poor week to get any fieldwork done.

COOLER WITH MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK

It was quiet in the Northern Plains over the weekend, though temperatures went through some downs and ups. Temperatures will be cooler this week. Multiple disturbances coming through every other day or so will bring scattered showers to the region. That is welcome, but will include some snow, too. That is especially true with a system on Friday. It will be difficult to get any early fieldwork done this week.

TWO FRONTS MOVING THROUGH DELTA THIS WEEK

It was largely dry in the Delta over the weekend, though a front moved through on Friday. Dryness and drought are a major concern as spring planting increases in April. A front will move through late this week and another will go through this weekend. Despite chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms, it will not be enough to reduce drought for too many areas.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BRAZIL

Wet season showers in Brazil became isolated over the weekend and continue to be so this week as well. The region needs more consistent heavy rainfall during the last month of the wet season for a good safrinha corn crop. But the forecasts are not favorable for that. They are more favorable for what remains of the soybean harvest, though.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN ARGENTINA

Isolated showers became heavy over southern Brazil this weekend, helping to increase soil moisture as crop conditions have largely stabilized. A slow-moving front will keep showers going for much of the week across the central and south before moving north this weekend. Rain will be somewhat favorable, but only for late-planted crops as the early season corn harvest continues to march on and early-planted soybeans have started to be harvested as well.

VERY ACTIVE FOR SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

A system brought widespread showers to southeastern Europe over the weekend while another system brought showers into the northwest as well. Yet more showers are moving into the northwest early this week while showers continue around the eastern Mediterranean. Northeastern areas have seen a few showers, but need more. Meanwhile, Spain has been a bit drier, allowing them to recover from heavy rain over the winter. Showers may slow down some early planting activity, but conditions are fairly good for most of the continent.

SHOWERS SPREADING THROUGH THE BLACK SEA REGION

A system moved into the Black Sea region over the weekend and will continue scattered showers early this week. More showers are expected late this week and weekend from the activity continuing in the Mediterranean. With soil moisture mixed around the region, the showers will be helpful as wheat continues to green up.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA SAW HEAVY RAIN

Tropical Cyclone Narelle brought needed heavy rain through western Australia over the weekend while eastern areas were dry. Some disturbances will move through this week, but precipitation will be limited and favored over western areas that are preparing for wheat and canola planting. Dryness in the east will favor cotton and sorghum harvest, but more rain is needed in these areas for wheat and canola planting.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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