DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with troughs moving through Canada.

A stronger trough will move along the border for Thursday and Friday.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will shift to the East next week while troughs start to move into the West. That will get the weather pattern to become a bit more active for early April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through the middle of the country mid-to-late next week and another will be possible next weekend as the shifting pattern will promote more active weather across the Central U.S. Rising temperatures will spread eastward next week while the West gets cooler with the troughs moving in. Some of that cooler air could make its way into the Northern Plains as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...106 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...7 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SAN JUAN, PR 1.47 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with troughs moving through Canada.

A stronger trough will move along the border for Thursday and Friday. The ridge will shift to the East next week while troughs start to move into the West.

That will make the weather pattern become a bit more active for early April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through the middle of the country mid-to-late next week and another will be possible next weekend as the shifting pattern will promote more active weather across the Central U.S. Rising temperatures will spread eastward next week while the West gets cooler with the troughs moving in. Some of that cooler air could make its way into the Northern Plains as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A front is moving through on Thursday with a few showers and a round of cooler air that will be very brief. Temperatures should rise on Saturday and the weather pattern will be more active next week as a couple of systems will make their way through. Eventually, some colder air is likely to move in later next week, which could make for some snow. The region would certainly welcome some precipitation ahead of spring planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong front will move through on Thursday and Friday with a few showers and a round of cooler air. Temperatures will rise again next week, though. Precipitation has been very limited lately, which is causing drought to expand across the region, especially in the west. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which will promote scattered showers, but that does not guarantee precipitation for some of the driest areas. Winter wheat conditions are falling significantly and soil moisture conditions are not favorable for many areas for spring planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stronger front will move through on Thursday with another round of colder air and scattered showers, some of which could be severe. The colder air will be very brief, however. The weather pattern will get more active next week, which would increase potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought as spring planting starts in some areas.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent dry conditions are turning the momentum around toward building drought instead of reducing it, which is already widespread across the region. While this will make fieldwork very easy, it will not be favorable for early growth as soil moisture is becoming limited again after some good rain in early March. The pattern looks to be a bit more active next week and into early April, but may not necessarily bring through much precipitation.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue for the next couple of days, but those showers will thin out by this weekend and will likely be more isolated through next week for much of the safrinha corn areas as well as the south. Conditions are mixed for safrinha corn so far, and there is roughly a month left to the wet season. Any dry time now is unfavorable for the crop.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): More showers will be possible Friday and over the weekend with some additional showers south next week. Crop conditions have stabilized after recent rains. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn and the beginning of soybeans, or heading toward maturity. Only a shrinking fraction of the crop can still benefit from rainfall. Drier conditions earlier this year have already taken their toll on production.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system continues into the southeast through the weekend, producing beneficial scattered showers. A few fronts will move through the northwest with showers this weekend into early next week as well. Outside of some dryness concerns in the northeast and some wetness concerns in the southwest, conditions are overall favorable for winter wheat as well as corn planting and early growth as that increases in April.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Patchy dryness still exists in the region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. A system will spin through the region this weekend into next week, which would promote scattered showers and more favorable conditions.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM/WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A front has gone through eastern Australia with some showers this week, which may disrupt the cotton and sorghum harvest. Meanwhile, Western Australia will be watching Tropical Cyclone Narelle this weekend, which may produce heavy rain and some structural damage for some areas. Both areas will need some rain prior to winter wheat and canola planting, which starts in April, so overall these two events should be regarded as beneficial.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been moving through the Yangtze River Valley lately, favoring some canola areas, but many wheat areas on the North China Plain have been drier since the winter. Showers continue to target central and southern China through next week with more limited precipitation farther north.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Isolated showers overnight. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Thursday, south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday.

Temperatures above normal Thursday, below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-early Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures well above normal Thursday, below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers northeast Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Monday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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