DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a strong ridge in the West and Central with troughs moving through Canada. The ridge is a little weaker this week, but remains.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge will shift to the East next week while troughs start to move into the West. That will get the weather pattern to become a bit more active for early April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through the middle of the country in the middle of next week and another will be possible later next week and weekend. Temperatures will be colder behind a cold front across the East this weekend, but warmer temperatures in the West will spread eastward next week while the West gets cooler with the troughs moving in.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...105 AT 2 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CIBOLA, AZ, AND RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW SUN...5 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7AM CDT SUNDAY...SAN JUAN, PR 1.61 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a strong ridge in the West and Central with troughs moving through Canada. The ridge is a little weaker this week, but remains. It will shift to the East next week while troughs start to move into the West. That will make the weather pattern become a bit more active for early April.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will move through the middle of the country in the middle of next week and another will be possible later next week and weekend. Temperatures will be colder behind a cold front across the East this weekend, but warmer temperatures in the West will spread eastward next week while the West gets cooler with the troughs moving in.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A strong cold front brought a wave of cooler air into the region over the weekend, after some extreme warmth late last week. The region will be in the active zone this week, with waffling temperatures and limited chances for precipitation. Temperatures should rise next week, and the weather pattern may feature more widespread and heavier precipitation, though that is a bit uncertain. The region would certainly welcome some precipitation ahead of spring planting.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Extreme heat this weekend was suppressed by a strong cold front moving through. Temperatures again will rise quite significantly this week before another strong front moves through on Thursday and Friday with another round of cooler air. Temperatures continue on the rollercoaster ride with rising readings next week. Despite all the fronts, precipitation is not occurring, which is causing drought to rise significantly across the region, especially in the west. The weather pattern may get more active next week, but that does not guarantee precipitation for some of the driest areas. Winter wheat conditions are falling significantly, and soil moisture conditions are not favorable for many areas for spring planting.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Extreme heat moved in on Saturday but was quickly squashed on Sunday as a strong cold front moved through. That produced some showers across the Ohio Valley. A couple of fronts will hang out across the north where showers may occur over the next few days, but a stronger front will move through on Thursday with another round of colder air and scattered showers. The weather pattern may get more active next week, which would increase potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain, favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought ahead of spring planting.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Drought conditions worsened over the weekend as extreme warmth built into the region. A front is failing to bring through any precipitation on Sunday, and drier conditions are likely even as another front moves through on Friday. While this will make fieldwork very easy, it will not be favorable for early growth as soil moisture is becoming limited again after some good rain in early March. The pattern looks to be a bit more active next week and into early April, but may not necessarily bring through much precipitation.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across the country this weekend, but were spottier in central Brazil. A front coming up from Argentina will keep showers going for much of the week, but the forecast is trending toward drier conditions this weekend and through next week for much of the safrinha corn areas as well as the south. Conditions are mixed for safrinha corn so far, and there is roughly a month left to the wet season.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought scattered showers to much of the country over the weekend, helping to stabilize crop conditions. Heavy rain will continue across the north for Monday and some showers will be possible later this week and weekend. Though the rainfall appears to be favorable, much of the crop is either in the midst of harvest, as is the early-planted corn, or heading toward maturity, such as early-planted soybeans. So the rainfall is only somewhat helpful. Drier conditions earlier this year have already taken their toll on production.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Some spotty showers moved through the middle of Europe over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. A system will drop through the continent on Wednesday and Thursday with widespread showers. The system may continue across the southeast for the rest of the week and weekend. Overall, the pattern may be getting a little busier again after taking a break for early March. Outside of some dryness concerns in the northeast and some wetness concerns in the southwest, conditions are overall favorable for winter wheat as well as corn planting and early growth as that increases in April.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Patchy dryness still exists in the region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. Some spotty showers will be possible this week, but the general trend has been drier this month. A system may spin through the region this weekend into next week, which would promote scattered showers, possibly mixed with snow in some areas.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Isolated showers occurred over eastern Australia this weekend, but most areas were fairly dry. That should help producers continue to increase harvest for cotton and sorghum. Western Australia will be watching for Tropical Cyclone Narelle as it may curl into the region this weekend. A front will go through with some possible showers later this week in the east as well. Both areas will need some rain prior to winter wheat and canola planting, which starts in April.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have been moving through the Yangtze River Valley this weekend, favoring some canola areas, but many wheat areas on the North China Plain have been drier since the winter. Showers are again targeting central China this week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal, but falling.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal, but falling.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, south Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday, below normal Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday night-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal, but falling.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday, above to well above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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