DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big trough in the East and a massive ridge in the West. The ridge will be record-strong as it spreads eastward into the Central this week, pushing the trough out of the country. Troughs up in Canada will continue move eastward, but have little effect on the U.S. except for the Northeast.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge weakens this weekend. Doing so will allow systems to move along the border region through the end of March, making for more of an up-and-down pattern in temperature, but not necessarily with much precipitation.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will move south through the country on Sunday and Monday. Limited showers will occur with it but it will send a wave of cooler air east of the Rockies. Temperatures will bounce right back up next week but the chaotic pattern continues with another system bringing a strong front through the country mid-late next week. That should produce scattered showers and another round of cooler air. Through all of this, the Southwest is likely to remain extremely warm.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...99 AT 4 MILES EAST OF NORTH SHORE, CA

LOW MON...24 BELOW ZERO AT LAKE METIGOSHE STATE PARK, ND

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...TALLAHASSEE, FL 1.45 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big trough in the East and a massive ridge in the West. The ridge will be record-strong as it spreads eastward into the Central this week, pushing the trough out of the country. Troughs up in Canada will continue move eastward, but have little effect on the U.S. except for the Northeast until the ridge weakens this weekend. Doing so will allow systems to move along the border region through the end of March.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will move south through the country on Sunday and Monday. Limited showers will occur with it, but it will send a wave of cooler air east of the Rockies. Temperatures will bounce right back up next week but the chaotic pattern continues with another system bringing a strong front through the country mid-late next week. That should produce scattered showers and another round of cooler air. Through all of this, the Southwest is likely to remain extremely warm.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A band of heavy snow fell across the region this weekend, especially in Montana. Cold air quickly moved in over the weekend, but is already on its way out as heat builds over the next few days, melting the snow. A burst of showers is moving through the Dakotas with the warmer air on Tuesday. A cold front will move through this weekend with limited showers and some cooler air, but the region will be on a rollercoaster ride of temperatures as they increase again early next week ahead of another strong front in the middle of next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Extremely strong winds brought in some colder air and frost damage on Sunday and Monday, but that is already on its way out, being replaced by extreme warmth that is likely to set records later this week. The frosts, followed by heat and dryness, will not be favorable for winter wheat conditions this week as a lot of areas dry out significantly. Drought continues to grow over the southwestern Plains, increasing stress for wheat, and being unfavorable for the start of planting as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A massive winter storm system dumped extremely heavy snow across the north and produced severe thunderstorms across the south over the weekend and on Monday. Lake-effect snow continues in the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A blast of arctic air is also moving through the region, but will not last long. Warmer air will spread through the region on Wednesday and Thursday, with a mix of rain and snow ushering in the warmer air. Despite some cold, conditions for winter wheat are likely to be positive with all the recent rainfall and drought reduction. Several fronts will move through later this week, weekend, and the middle of next week, bringing change in temperature but not much precipitation is in the forecast.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): Recent rainfall has done a good job at increasing soil moisture and reducing drought, as well as pumping up water levels on all area rivers. The increase in soil moisture should be a positive impact, though long-term drought still resides throughout most of the region. Drier weather this week will not be favorable for reducing the drought further. And if dry conditions continue next week as well, as currently forecast, the tendency for deeper drought may continue.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across central Brazil throughout the week, favorable for safrinha corn. Dryness over the south has been unfavorable for filling corn and soybeans there. A front will come up from Argentina on Tuesday, but will only bring showers for a couple of days. More rain will be needed there as it is getting much drier.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A front finally brought some heavy rain to southern areas on Monday and another is forecast to do the same on Tuesday, which will help to stabilize crop conditions. There is not a lot of time left for rainfall to produce positive impacts, however, with early-crop harvest continuing to expand and late-crop harvest approaching at the end of the month.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers fell over the western half of Europe over the weekend, which included Germany and Italy, but eastern areas continue to be unfavorably dry. Some showers continue in central Europe Tuesday and Wednesday, but will be followed by a lot of drier conditions. With warmer temperatures bringing winter wheat out of dormancy, some of the crop is doing so in fairly dry conditions, especially in the northeast. The pattern may be a little more active for eastern areas next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Patchy dryness still exists in the region as wheat comes out of dormancy in mixed condition. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of southwestern Russia that is forecast to get some patchy light rainfall this week. Showers may be a little more widespread next week, but continue to be light.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): A system is producing scattered showers for east over the next few days. Not all areas are forecast to get some rainfall, but that isn't necessarily favorable as cotton and sorghum continue to mature and harvest begins in some areas. The moisture will be important for the coming winter wheat crop, however, which starts to be planted in April.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers will continue over south-central China through at least this weekend, favorable for some winter wheat and especially canola areas that are coming out of dormancy. Wheat on the North China Plain have good soil moisture, but precipitation has been limited this winter. More rain would be favorable sooner rather than later.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures well below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, well above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Lake-effect snow Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures well below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday.

Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures rising Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, well above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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