DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big trough in the Central and a massive ridge moving into the West. The ridge will be record-strong as it spreads eastward through the West and into the Central this week, pushing the trough out of the country.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Troughs up in Canada will continue move eastward, but have little effect on the U.S. except for the Northeast until the ridge weakens this weekend. Doing so will allow systems to move along the border region through next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Extremely warm air over the West and Central late this week and weekend will give way as some fronts move through the country this weekend and next week.

Most of these fronts will be rather dry, favoring the Northeast, but will bring through some colder air, especially to the Northeast.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...105 AT 7 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HIDALGO, TX

LOW SUN...15 BELOW ZERO AT MOORE, MT, AND 32 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...DAYTONA BEACH, FL 1.37 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a big trough in the Central and a massive ridge moving into the West. The ridge will be record-strong as it spreads eastward through the West and into the Central this week, pushing the trough out of the country. Troughs up in Canada will continue move eastward, but have little effect on the U.S.

except for the Northeast until the ridge weakens this weekend. Doing so will allow systems to move along the border region through next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Extremely warm air over the West and Central late this week and weekend will give way as some fronts move through the country this weekend and next week.

Most of these fronts will be rather dry, favoring the Northeast, but will bring through some colder air, especially to the Northeast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A band of heavy snow fell across the region this weekend, especially in Montana. Cold air quickly moved in over the weekend, but it will quickly move out as well, as heat builds over the region throughout the week, melting the snow. A burst of showers will move through with the warmer air on Tuesday, but drier conditions are likely for most of the next week, with potential for storms returning next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Extremely strong winds developed across the region again over the weekend as a major winter storm system moved through. However, there was not a lot of precipitation, which favored areas to the north and east. The winds have brought in some colder air, but that will quickly be leaving early this week, being replaced by extreme warmth that is likely to set records later this week. The frosts, followed by heat and dryness, will not be favorable for winter wheat conditions this week as a lot of areas dry out significantly. Drought may continue to grow over the southwestern Plains, increasing stress for wheat, but being unfavorable for the start of planting as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A massive winter storm system moved into the region over the weekend with extremely heavy snow across the north, and severe thunderstorms across the south. Winds have been strong with the system as well. The last punch to the storm moves through on Monday, where snow will continue around the Great Lakes, followed by lake-effect snow into Tuesday. A blast of arctic air is also moving through the region, but will not last long. Warmer air will spread through the region on Wednesday and Thursday, with a mix of rain and snow ushering in the warmer air. Despite some cold, conditions for winter wheat are likely to be positive with all the recent rainfall and drought reduction.

DELTA (TRANSPORTATION/SOYBEANS/COTTON): A strong cold front moved through the region on Sunday with strong winds and a line of severe weather. Recent rainfall has done a good job at increasing soil moisture and reducing drought, as well as pumping up water levels on all area rivers. The increase in soil moisture should be a positive impact, though long-term drought still resides throughout most of the region. Drier weather this week will not be favorable for reducing the drought further. And if dry conditions continue next week as well, the tendency for deeper drought may continue.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continued across central Brazil over the weekend and stay in the region throughout the week, favorable for safrinha corn. Dryness over the south has been unfavorable for filling corn and soybeans there. A front will come up from Argentina on Tuesday and may have a tendency to stall and produce scattered showers for the rest of the week, though coverage could wane by the weekend. More rain will be needed there.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers fell over western areas this weekend, but missed the very dry southeast. However, a pair of fronts are forecast to bring through widespread rain Monday and Tuesday, which may be heavy for those in the southeast and stabilize crop conditions. There is not a lot of time left for rainfall to produce positive impacts, however, with early-crop harvest continuing to expand and late-crop harvest approaching at the end of the month.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers fell over the western half of Europe over the weekend, which included Germany and Italy, but eastern areas continue to be unfavorably dry. More showers will move through central Europe early this week, but will be followed by a lot of drier conditions. With warmer temperatures bringing winter wheat out of dormancy, some of the crop is doing so in fairly dry conditions, especially in the northeast. Western areas are likely to get some more precipitation this weekend.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions have been back in the region after some limited coverage and amounts over the last couple of months. Patchy dryness still exists in the region. Higher temperatures through next week continues to awaken the wheat from dormancy. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of southwestern Russia that is forecast to get some patchy light rainfall this week.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): A system in the middle of the country will produce scattered showers for the southeast this week. Not all areas are forecast to get some rainfall, but that isn't necessarily favorable as cotton and sorghum continue to mature and harvest begins in some areas. The moisture will be important for the coming winter wheat crop, however, which starts to be planted in April.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved into the middle of the country over the weekend, favorable for winter wheat and especially canola that are coming out of dormancy. A few bursts of showers will move through southern growing areas this week as well.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures well below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, well above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Scattered showers Monday. Lake-effect snow Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures below to well below normal Monday, rising Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, well above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures well above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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