DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a large trough in Canada with a piece of it over the Great Lakes and another gathering around British Columbia. The British Columbia piece of this trough will move through the entire U.S. this weekend into early next week, being very strong as it does so.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A much stronger ridge out in the Pacific will press eastward into the West and Central next week, pushing the trough out of the U.S. except on the East Coast.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar but have some disagreements about the snowfall forecast for the storm system this weekend and how warm it will be next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warm air will spread from west to east across the country next week. On the nose of that warmer air, a little system will probably bring a system through the Midwest with a wintry mix Tuesday and Wednesday. Record warmth will be possible in the Southwest and Plains. A cold front will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast next weekend with some cooler air and some showers, but the pattern will be much drier for at least a little while.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...99 AT 4 MILES EAST OF NORTH SHORE, CA

LOW THU...4 BELOW ZERO AT CLARKSBURG, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...PORTLAND, OR 2.07 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a large trough in Canada with a piece of it over the Great Lakes and another gathering around British Columbia. The British Columbia piece of this trough will move through the entire U.S. this weekend into early next week, being very strong as it does so. Meanwhile, a stronger ridge out in the Pacific will press eastward into the West and Central next week, pushing the trough out of the U.S. except on the East Coast.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar but have some disagreements about the snowfall forecast for the storm system this weekend and how warm it will be next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warm air will spread from west to east across the country next week. On the nose of that warmer air, a little system will probably bring a system through the Midwest with a wintry mix Tuesday and Wednesday. Record warmth will be possible in the Southwest and Plains. A cold front will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast next weekend with some cooler air and some showers, but the pattern will be much drier for at least a little while.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A very strong system moved through the region on Thursday with areas of showers, some heavy snow to the north, and extremely strong winds. Those winds have already calmed down significantly, but the next storm is brewing. Snow is falling across the south and a new system will move through for the weekend. A large band of snow will continue from Montana eastward, especially across South Dakota, where heavy amounts are expected. Strong winds on the backside of the system could lead to blizzard conditions in the southeast on Sunday. A burst of cold will move through behind the system, but very warm air will quickly replace it early next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Strong winds may have caused some damage and developed wildfires on Thursday. That is calming down this morning, but another system will move through across the north this weekend. Models are mixed on the precipitation potential with this storm, but favor eastern Nebraska with the heaviest potential, which may be moderate snow. A burst of cold air will follow, but warm air will quickly replace it early next week and could be record warm by the end of next week. The pattern will certainly be drier though, which is unfortunate for southwestern wheat areas that have missed out on the active pattern. Southeastern areas have seen good rainfall and drought reduction over the last ten days or so.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system moved into the region on Thursday and continues eastward on Friday. Some northern snow has been noted, but extremely strong winds continue into the afternoon. The next system will move through this weekend and Monday, causing a major winter storm threat. Heavy snow will develop across the north and models are mixed on where to place a band of more moderate snow on the backside of the system, either to over Iowa or Illinois. Either way, additional headaches will be noted going into early next week as winds will again be strong with this system, creating blizzard conditions for some areas. A burst of cold will move through as well, but will be short lived with very warm air pressing eastward through the region next week. On the nose of that warmth, a little system will likely produce a light mix of rain and snow. Drought reduction has been noteworthy over the last two weeks, but still remains in some areas prior to spring planting.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Two large storm systems that have moved through the region over the last week have significantly reduced drought. However, rainfall deficits were larger than the reported amounts and drought still remains in place. Another cold front will move through with scattered showers and maybe some severe weather on Sunday, but the pattern will be much drier after that through next week. If the weather pattern doesn't get more active toward the end of the month, we could see drought increasing again.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across central Brazil through next week, being more favorable for newly planted safrinha corn. Areas in the south will be much drier with poorer conditions until a front moves in during the middle of next week. The country will continue to try and stack soil moisture before the wet season rainfall shuts down in the next 6-7 weeks.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): It has been very dry for a lot of areas this week, though spotty showers have been noted across the west. Spots in the southeast are particularly dry and in need of rainfall. A front is forecast to move through this weekend with scattered precipitation, and another one or two will combine for some more widespread showers early next week. That may bring some heavy rain to the driest areas of the country, stabilizing crop conditions there. But time is running out for rainfall to have a positive impact for filling corn and soybeans as early planted corn continues to be harvested while harvest will pick up for soybeans late this month into April.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Spain has been very wet this winter, which may be too much of a good thing as some flooding and soggy conditions could be bogging down wheat there. Though some showers will move through France, Germany, and the UK through Monday, the rest of Europe continues to be drier through next week, somewhat unfavorable for winter wheat that is starting to awaken from dormancy. Northern Germany and Poland are in need of some more moisture before that happens, but Poland may not see much through next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions are back in the region after some limited coverage and amounts over the last couple of months. Patchy dryness still exists in the region. Higher temperatures through next week will awaken some of the wheat from dormancy. More precipitation would be preferred, but very little is in the forecast outside of far southern Russia that is forecast to get some patchy light rainfall next week.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Recent heavy rain has improved soil moisture, but also caused some flooding in eastern Australia. Drier weather continues through the weekend, which should be more beneficial for cotton and sorghum to recover. A complicated system will move through southeastern areas early next week. Showers may or may not hit much of the farmland in the region. With crops starting to mature, it would be more beneficial to be dry, though any rainfall will help to build soil moisture ahead of the wheat and canola planting season.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier weather over the last few months has not resulted in much reduction in soil moisture across the northern half of China, but a lack of significant moisture continues to be worrisome for some southeastern areas. A front that moves through this weekend will stall for central areas next week, which will bring favorable precipitation.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, falling Sunday, below to well below normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Lake-effect snow Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday.

Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, falling Sunday, below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures well above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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