DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with troughs up in Canada, one in the Plains, and another in the Southwest. The Plains trough will continue to slowly move eastward Thursday while part of the Southwest trough will move eastward Friday through the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Next week, a larger trough will move through western Canada and pull the Southwestern trough eastward with it. The Canadian trough is likely to bring at least one more wave through the U.S. late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A larger system is forecast to move through the country in the middle of next week and could be followed by another one at the end of next week and weekend.

Temperatures ahead of the midweek system will be rather warm, but fall behind it. The same goes for the weekend system. The drop is likely to be more dramatic for those across the east the following week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...93 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW WED...11 BELOW ZERO AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...INDIANAPOLIS, IN 2.65 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with troughs up in Canada, one in the Plains, and another in the Southwest. The Plains trough will continue to slowly move eastward Thursday while part of the Southwest trough will move eastward Friday through the weekend. Next week, a larger trough will move through western Canada and pull the Southwestern trough eastward with it. The Canadian trough is likely to bring at least one more wave through the U.S. late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A larger system is forecast to move through the country in the middle of next week and could be followed by another one at the end of next week and weekend.

Temperatures ahead of the midweek system will be rather warm, but fall behind it. The same goes for the weekend system. The drop is likely to be more dramatic for those across the east the following week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A system should bring a mix of rain and snow Thursday night and Friday, which may result in some accumulating snow. Another large system is forecast for next Tuesday with a mix of rain and snow, and there could be another one like it later next week. Temperatures will be higher than normal into early next week, but will fall behind the Tuesday system.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is generally low across most of the region, despite little drought designation across Colorado and Kansas and some recent rain in the east. More waves of showers and thunderstorms will move through into the weekend, some of which could be severe. Eastern areas are favored with the heavier rain, which could result in flooding. If it indeed stays drier in the west, drought could grow, a potential problem for winter wheat that is coming out of dormancy. A system in the middle of next week also favors eastern areas with precipitation and possible severe weather.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Drought remains a problem in the region prior to spring planting, though some heavier rain has fallen across the south this week, which should result in some improvements. A larger system will sweep through the region on Friday and Saturday with rounds of rain and potential severe weather. The same is true with another system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Drought is a major problem in the Delta region prior to spring planting, though water levels on the Mississippi River are not too bad due to more frequent precipitation farther north, particularly in the Ohio Valley. Multiple rounds of rain have been moving through the Plains and Midwest this week, aiding the rivers, but precipitation continues to be limited until a front moves through on Saturday. Some scattered showers may linger into early next week as well. The heaviest precipitation may come through with a system in the middle of next week, which would help to reduce the drought in the region, but deficits are very large in some areas.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain has been falling over northern Brazil this week, allowing for a rapid pace for continued soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting across the south, but causing transportation and quality concerns across the north. The country needs the consistent rains to return farther south as subsoil moisture continues to be lacking. Showers should start to fill back in this weekend, and spread through central Brazil as well, returning to normal for next week. That will be about two weeks of relative dryness, a sobering sign during the wet season as we approach the final stages of wet weather.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, which have seen falling conditions over the last two months despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the country. Showers this week have been much lower than forecast, favoring far western areas so far. Showers will linger across the north through the weekend before likely being drier next week. Temperatures are cooler this week, limiting overall stress, but fertile areas in the south and east need more rain. For some, it is already too late and damage has been done. For late-planted corn and soybeans, there is still some limited time for rain to be beneficial.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system is bringing showers over the western Mediterranean and will continue there through the weekend. Another system may visit Spain early next week. Much of the rest of the continent will remain dry. Wetter conditions in Spain are not preferred after a long winter of excess rainfall. Dry areas in the northeast will need some precipitation this spring before winter crops awaken from dormancy, but the situation is not dire yet.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have been frequent during the winter, but heavy amounts have been elusive. Soil moisture is mixed across the region and more consistent precipitation is going to be needed as wheat awakens from dormancy over the next several weeks. The region is seeing colder air to keep wheat dormant, but the region would prefer some more precipitation.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): A stalled front produced heavy rainfall in the southeast over the last week, favorable for increasing soil moisture for filling cotton and sorghum, but also produced some areas of flooding. Drier weather is taking over there now. The tropics are awakening, though, and will need to be watched as they may bring significant rainfall to the country over the month of March. The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 24P could spread some heavy rain into northeastern areas this weekend.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture is low across southeast China while central and northern areas have adequate soil moisture, even though showers have been limited over the past few months. Southern areas did get some good rainfall over the weekend and a few fronts should continue that this week. Drier weather in the north is not a major concern at the moment, but some additional moisture will be needed once wheat and canola awaken from dormancy over the next several weeks.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers southeast. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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