DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with troughs up in Canada and another moving through the ridge into the Southern Plains. The Plains trough will continue to slowly move eastward over the next few days while another moves in to take its place in the Southwest over the next day or two. Only part of that trough will move eastward later this week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Eventually, a larger trough will move through western Canada early next week and pull the Southwestern trough eastward with it. The Canadian trough is likely to bring at least one more wave through the U.S. late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A larger system is forecast to move through the country in the middle of next week and could be followed by another one at the end of next week and weekend.

Temperatures ahead of the midweek system will be rather warm, but fall significantly behind it. The same goes for the late-week system. The drop is likely to be more dramatic for those across the north.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...100 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW TUE...15 BELOW ZERO AT 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROOKWOOD, ME AND ERROL, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...INDIANAPOLIS, IN 0.86 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across most of the U.S. with troughs up in Canada and another moving through the ridge into the Southern Plains. The Plains trough will continue to slowly move eastward over the next few days while another moves in to take its place in the Southwest over the next day or two. Only part of that trough will move eastward later this week and weekend. Eventually, a larger trough will move through western Canada early next week and pull the Southwestern trough eastward with it. The Canadian trough is likely to bring at least one more wave through the U.S. late next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A larger system is forecast to move through the country in the middle of next week and could be followed by another one at the end of next week and weekend.

Temperatures ahead of the midweek system will be rather warm, but fall significantly behind it. The same goes for the late-week system. The drop is likely to be more dramatic for those across the north.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A system should bring a mix of rain and snow to the southeast on Thursday night and Friday, which may result in some accumulating snow in Wyoming and South Dakota. Another large system is forecast for next Tuesday with a mix of rain and snow, and there could be another one like it later next week. Temperatures will be higher than normal into early next week, but will fall behind the Tuesday system.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Soil moisture is generally low across most of the region, despite little drought designation across Colorado and Kansas. The region is getting very busy, however, with multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Eastern areas are favored, which could result in flooding and severe weather. If it indeed stays drier in the west, drought could grow, a potential problem for winter wheat that is coming out of dormancy. A system in the middle of next week also favors eastern areas with precipitation and possible severe weather.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Drought remains a problem in the region prior to spring planting. Warmer temperatures are moving in and multiple waves of showers will lead to widespread rain throughout the week and weekend. Improvement to drought and dryness is expected, though some areas have large deficits to overcome. A couple of stronger systems are looking likely for next week as well.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Drought is a major problem in the Delta region prior to spring planting, though water levels on the Mississippi River are not too bad due to more frequent precipitation farther north, particularly in the Ohio Valley. Multiple rounds of rain will move through the Plains and Midwest, aiding the rivers, but precipitation will be limited until a front moves through this weekend. The heaviest precipitation may come through with a system in the middle of next week, which would help to reduce the drought in the region, but deficits are very large in some areas.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain continues over northern areas, allowing for a rapid pace for continued soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting across the south. However, the country needs the consistent rains to return as subsoil moisture continues to be lacking. Most of the southern half of the country is drier this week, but showers should start to fill back in this weekend, and spread through central Brazil as well. That will be about two weeks of relative dryness, a sobering sign during the wet season.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Large-scale dryness over the last week has not been favorable for filling corn and soybeans, which have seen falling conditions over the last two months despite some areas of wetness in February across the middle of the country. A front moved through on Monday and Tuesday with limited precipitation. Another front will move through Wednesday and Thursday, but will favor northern, less productive areas over the more fertile areas in the south and east that have had larger issues with dryness this season. Showers will linger across the north through the weekend before becoming drier next week. Temperatures are cooler this week, limiting overall stress.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): A system will be bringing showers over the western Mediterranean through the weekend. Much of the rest of the continent will remain dry. Wetter conditions in Spain are not preferred after a long winter of excess rainfall. Dry areas in the northeast will need some precipitation this spring before winter crops awaken from dormancy, but the situation is not dire yet.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Showers have been frequent during the winter, but heavy amounts have been elusive. Soil moisture is mixed across the region and more consistent precipitation is going to be needed as wheat awakens from dormancy over the next several weeks. However, the region is seeing cold fronts this week, which should reinforce some cooler air to keep wheat dormant, but with only limited precipitation.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): A stalled front produced heavy rainfall in the southeast over the last week, favorable for increasing soil moisture for filling cotton and sorghum, but also produced some areas of flooding. Drier weather is taking over there now. The tropics are awakening, though, and will need to be watched as they may bring significant rainfall to the country over the month of March. One in particular could spread some heavy rain into northeastern areas this weekend.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture is low across southeast China while central and northern areas have adequate soil moisture, even though showers have been limited over the past few months. Southern areas did get some good rainfall over the weekend and a few fronts should continue that this week. Drier weather in the north is not a major concern at the moment, but some additional moisture will be needed once wheat and canola awaken from dormancy over the next several weeks.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers north through Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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