DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West into the Plains with a series of troughs in Canada. Multiple pieces of energy will rotate around Canada and along the border through the middle of next week, resulting in several storm systems as the ridge does its best to spread across the U.S., especially to the East next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A trough out in the Pacific will move into the Southwest early next week, will be continually reinforced, and will likely result in a busy pattern over the Central U.S. for early March.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Multiple impulses and storm systems are being forecast for the middle of the country for the first half of March, resulting in a lot of precipitation for portions of the Plains, Delta, and Midwest next week that should help with the ongoing drought. Overall, this is a warmer pattern, but there may be some cooler conditions where precipitation, clouds, and cold fronts occur.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...104 AT 2 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA PUERTA, TX

LOW THU...12 BELOW ZERO AT CLARKSBURG, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...RALEIGH-DURHAM, NC 1.18 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West into the Plains with a series of troughs in Canada. Multiple pieces of energy will rotate around Canada and along the border through the middle of next week, resulting in several storm systems as the ridge does its best to spread across the U.S., especially to the East next week. A trough out in the Pacific will move into the Southwest early next week, will be continually reinforced, and will likely result in a busy pattern over the Central U.S. for early March.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Multiple impulses and storm systems are being forecast for the middle of the country for the first half of March, resulting in a lot of precipitation for portions of the Plains, Delta, and Midwest next week that should help with the ongoing drought. Overall, this is a warmer pattern, but there may be some cooler conditions where precipitation, clouds, and cold fronts occur.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): A streak of snow will develop for Saturday, but the region will be on the edge of more active weather next week.

Precipitation will be favored to the south, though how widespread it gets for early March is still unknown. With the recent drier trend, the region would love to see some more precipitation before true spring arrives.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Strong winds and dry soils have led to elevated wildfire conditions as well as falling conditions for winter wheat. The storm track has been busy, but only limited precipitation has fallen, resulting in drought expansion, which is a problem for much of the region. However, the pattern changes next week that will allow for many systems to bring through widespread precipitation for early March. Not all areas will be hit equally, and western areas could still remain drier, but the pattern is more favorable.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring. One more quick-hitting system will move across the region on Saturday with a band of snow. However, the pattern starts to change Sunday night as we should see multiple systems bringing widespread precipitation for the first half of March.

That would be favorable for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought prior to spring planting.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Water levels along the Mississippi River are rising despite the ongoing drought in the Delta region.

Precipitation farther north in the Midwest is helping to keep river levels from dropping too low. However, this drought is long-standing and an issue prior to spring planting. The pattern changes next week and multiple systems are likely to move through the region with increased rainfall for early March. That should help both with the drought situation, and keeping water levels on the Mississippi River up. However, we may have to watch for some flooding. If this lasts too long into March, we could end up with planting delays.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain is migrating to northern areas, where it will continue through next week. Dryness farther south will promote rapid fieldwork, but is a problem for newly-planted safrinha corn. Soil moisture is still low overall. Consistent, heavy rainfall needs to continue for the next two months to put the corn in good standing for pollination and grain fill. Currently, the forecast is not favorable for that situation, which will cause problems for corn should this not reverse.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have become spotty over the last week, which is forecast to continue into March. This will not be enough to lift areas out of drought in any significant way, and the trend toward lower crop ratings will likely resume. Outside of a few lucky spots, February rainfall has been below-normal like January had been, which is causing concern for both corn and soybean production.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Though a few fronts have been moving through this week with some showers, the pattern is drying out for the continent into next week.

That is actually favorable after the last few months of seemingly non-stop active weather. However, the pattern looks favorable for increased precipitation across Spain by Monday. Spain found a needed break after heavy precipitation. If showers come back in a significant way, there could be issues with flooding again.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers are finally ending in the region, though amounts have not been all that impressive. Limited showers in early March are not necessarily favorable. Still, soil moisture and snow cover are building in some areas, which will favor winter wheat when it awakens from dormancy.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): A stalled front will continue to provide beneficial rainfall to cotton and sorghum in the fill stage across southeast Australia into early next week. Not all areas are benefiting from the increased rainfall, however. But the tropics are appearing to become more active, which could help to bring heavy precipitation into the country in March.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Soil moisture is low across southeast China while central and northern areas have adequate soil moisture, even though showers have been limited the past few months. Once wheat and canola start awakening from dormancy in the next month or so, they will need more precipitation.

Through next week, multiple systems will bring showers across the southern half of the agricultural areas, but the North China Plain and northeast will likely miss out as systems pass by to the south.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday, especially south.

Temperatures above normal Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday, below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal Friday, falling Saturday, below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Saturday, below normal north and above normal south Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through north through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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