DTN Ag Weather Brief

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the Central and East with a big trough in the West.

The trough will send several pieces of energy eastward throughout the week, but build back into the Pacific this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Pacific trough will allow a ridge to form in the West. At least part of that trough will move eastward mid-late next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but develop systems differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

With the big troughs in the West and Pacific, some big storm systems are looking likely through the end of February. The ridge will create a little bit of a break this weekend into early next week, but another big storm is forecast for mid-late next week, perhaps in a couple of pieces as well. Temperatures should fall behind systems, and a little burst of below-normal air will sweep through the country behind a system this weekend, but air sourced from the Pacific Ocean should leave most of the country in a rather warm pattern with brief cool interruptions behind these systems.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...91 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE, TX

LOW MON...8 BELOW ZERO AT 1 MILE WEST-NORTHWEST OF MASARDIS, ME, AND 3 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF OXBOW, ME

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...SACRAMENTO, CA 1.69 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge across the Central and East with a big trough in the West.

The trough will send several pieces of energy eastward throughout the week, but build back into the Pacific this weekend. That will allow a ridge to form in the West. At least part of the Pacific trough will move eastward mid-late next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar, but develop systems differently. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

With the big troughs in the West and Pacific, some big storm systems are looking likely through the end of February. The ridge will create a little bit of a break this weekend into early next week, but another big storm is forecast for mid-late next week, perhaps in a couple of pieces as well. Temperatures should fall behind systems, and a little burst of below-normal air will sweep through the country behind a system this weekend, but air sourced from the Pacific Ocean should leave most of the country in a rather warm pattern with brief cool interruptions behind these systems.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Extremely warm air over the last week has all but melted all of the snow in the region, which is way too early. However, we still have some time to build up some snow before the true spring thaw. A big winter storm will move through with some heavy snow for northern areas Tuesday and Wednesday and additional snow may come to southern areas on Thursday. Colder temperatures will stick around for a little while as well, but are likely to rise ahead of the next big storm next week. Strong winds will also occur across the region with multiple big storms forecast for the end of February.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): It was extremely warm over the weekend. Though some good rain fell across the region, soil moisture maps are not all that favorable for winter wheat, especially across the west, and drought is a big problem across Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas prior to spring planting. Many systems are forecast to move through the region over the next two weeks, and could bring some batches of precipitation, but the forecast favors areas to the north and east for anything significant. Instead, strong winds could dry soils quicker, especially with temperatures remaining warm early this week and again next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A system went across the southern half of the region with moderate rain over the weekend while warmer temperatures continued, especially in the west. Snowpack is extremely low across most of the region and we will need to see significant precipitation prior to spring planting to feel good about soil moisture. Streaks of drought, especially from Missouri to northwestern Ohio, are the major issues heading into spring, though the weather pattern is opening up and promising some bigger storm potential. One system will move through late Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by another for Thursday and Friday. When added together, there is potential for widespread rain and thunderstorms south with snow across the north.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): A system moved through over the weekend, which brought widespread precipitation to most areas. This will provide some boost to the Mississippi River, but more will be needed to ease the drought that is very widespread through the Delta prior to spring planting. Multiple larger storms are forecast for the rest of February, which may provide some benefit to the rivers, but favors the Plains and Midwest with the significant precipitation.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through southern Brazil over the weekend, but were very isolated over central Brazil, which may have allowed fieldwork to progress more rapidly as the country continues to harvest soybeans and plant corn. A front across the south will move back into central areas this week, though it will still be awfully scattered for the rest of the week. They may intensify this weekend into next week, but the country needs the rain as subsoil moisture continues to be low for this time of year and will be counted on for the coming safrinha corn crop.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought scattered showers over the weekend, but most areas saw light rain while only a few lucky areas saw anything beneficial. A few more waves of showers will move through the country through Saturday before another dry stretch commences. The dry stretch may only last a week with showers returning by next Wednesday. Rain has improved soil moisture lately, but both corn and soybeans have been trying to improve conditions since the end of January with little progress. Crop conditions for both have not increased since the declines started in early January. For some of the crop, the rains are too late, but there is still time for the later-planted portions of both crops.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): An active weather pattern for Europe continued over the weekend, but also allowed a break for Spain, which had been inundated for the last couple of months. Poland has not had the precipitation it needs for spring, but there is still time. The active pattern continues through at least the end of February and is both favorable for winter crops, and the coming spring planting season. Some areas may be too wet to work properly though, which may delay fieldwork if it extends too far into March.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): A bigger storm system moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, which also made for some beneficial precipitation for drier parts of southwestern Russia as well. The weather pattern is becoming much more active and chances for frequent precipitation will continue through the end of February. Temperatures remain mixed, but without threat from arctic bursts that would be damaging to wheat.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Northern Australia has seen a marked increase in precipitation in 2026, but primary agricultural areas, particularly in the east, have not. Some beneficial rainfall did fall in Queensland over the weekend, but reducing the dryness has been difficult to achieve over the last several weeks. The same is true this week as systems will still be moving through, but with patchy rainfall that won't be likely to increase soil moisture for cotton and sorghum that is largely in the fill stage.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months, especially across southeast China. Shower chances are relatively frequent for the rest of the month, but with low amounts. The region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next month or two.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Tuesday, far north Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday, north Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Tuesday. Scattered snow north Wednesday night-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, falling Thursday, below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.