Canada Markets

I can well imagine one of your first thoughts -- what is a Canadian grains analyst doing discussing the U.S. beef market, again? Simply put, a healthy and prosperous cattle industry is vital to all of agriculture in North America. And it doesn't matter if you are a vegan crop producer in Western Canada (for example) -- you still want a healthy corn market with robust feed demand.

Of all things, what caught my attention more than anything else in Tuesday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) update was the per capita beef consumption upward revisions. Amid near record high prices, I might add.

Before I dive into the beef data I must admit, I was surprised at the lack of market reaction to the unexpected increase in corn exports and equal decline in ending stocks (with the 100 mb decline leaving carryover 50 mb below the lowest pre-report estimate); but that's a topic for another day.

What was likely the most important aspect about the increased beef consumption was the extent of the revision given the near-record high prices. 2026 per capita beef consumption was increased from 58.9 pounds per year (last month) to 59.5 pounds in the February update, taking out 2025's 59.2-pound per capita consumption and even exceeding the 59.1-pound level set in 2024. It's also important to note that as the data has been finalized, the 59.2-pound level from 2025 was revised up in the February report from 59.0 pounds in the January report.

Before I get to why that's so important, I need to point out that as recently as November, USDA was expecting 2025 per capita consumption would fall from 59.1 pounds in 2024 to 58.4 pounds and the average for 2026 would decline all the way down to 56.8 pounds per capita due to high prices.

The difference between the November and February WASDE consumption rates amounts to 352 million pounds more beef demand for 2025 and another 1.250 billion pounds of demand for 2026 -- and the latter is with a "B". As you can imagine, it takes quite a few changes on the supply side to accommodate for that extent of an increase.

Most importantly for both the cattle and the corn markets is the increased beef production that is needed amid declining herd numbers. Increased carcass weights are a very contentious topic with the dairy and beef crosses allowing for increased beef without rebuilding of the herd, but this goes to show the need for it. For now, at least. To be precise, from the November to the February WASDE updates, beef production estimates increased 245 million pounds for 2025 and 530 million pounds for 2026 based primarily on carcass weights.

And the longer those larger animals stay on feed, obviously, the more corn consumed along the way. That has allowed the U.S. corn "feed and residual use" estimate to remain above the previous two years despite the declining herd size (irritating some analysts along the way).

The next important (and timely) point is the resulting necessity to increase beef imports (beyond just for political purposes). From the November to the February WASDE updates, the 2025 beef import estimate was increased 245 million pounds while the 2026 figure had to be increased by another 625 million pounds to help cover the increased consumption expectations.

At 5.575 billion pounds needing to be imported in 2026 (just to look after demand) compared to 4.635 billion pounds in 2024 -- the recently announced 80,000 metric ton (mt) tariff free quota for Argentina is a drop in the bucket. The 60,000-mt bump might increase imports of trimmings (for ground beef production) from the country by 132 million pounds if they can spare the additional supplies -- but that is not only questionable, it is relatively insignificant in the big picture as this post points out.

Declining exports cannot be overlooked either as no one should be alarmed if U.S. shipments are not living up to historical norms. Export estimates have been relatively stable versus previous months, albeit declining over time due to the lack of supply and strong domestic demand. For 2026, beef exports are expected to only amount to 2.425 billion pounds compared to 3.007 billion as recently as 2024. It is still worth noting that in November, the estimate was 100 million pounds higher at 2.525 billion pounds (for 2026 exports), but again must be cut to accommodate the increased per capita consumption amid limited supply.

And to drive the point home -- declining ending stocks highlight the impact of the increasing demand for beef despite the price. For 2026, ending stocks are expected to fall to 560 million pounds from 570 million in last month's update. That is down from 581 million pounds at the end of 2025 (that was estimated to be 595 million in the January update before Tuesday's revisions) and sharply lower than the 602 million pounds remaining at the end of 2024.

So good news all around. Near record high prices, strong demand regardless, a lack of supply constraining exports and inspiring imports, and strong feed demand required to get the most beef produced out of the smaller calf crop.

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

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