DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with a trough in the Southeast. Another trough is will move through eastern Canada and the Northeast this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western ridge will spread eastward behind it next week, and a trough will take over the West, a better setup for bigger storms for mid-February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warmer air will spread through the country next week, but will be milder on the West Coast. This will open the door for systems to move across the country, but models are trying to work out the details. Models have switched to just one storm next week. But have another building over the Southwest next weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...88 AT YORBA LINDA, CA

LOW THU...15 BELOW ZERO AT 5 MILES EAST OF DAVIS, WV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...CHARLESTON, SC 0.28 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with a trough in the Southeast.

Another trough will move through eastern Canada and the Northeast this weekend. But the western ridge will spread eastward behind it next week, and a trough will take over the West, a better setup for bigger storms for mid-February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warmer air will spread through the country next week, but will be milder on the West Coast. This will open the door for systems to move across the country, but models are trying to work out the details. Models have switched to just one storm next week. But we have another building over the Southwest next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Warmer air is forecast through next week. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation through Wednesday, but nothing that looks particularly heavy as of right now. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting for mid-February. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures will stick around through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February, but they may have a tendency to move through the region without producing much precipitation, gathering strength as they move east. The impact now is unknown.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes with snow on Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer. The warmer air will win out next week, and will open the door for a few larger storm systems for mid-February. That should help some of the drought situation.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the region. Water levels are dropping again, though, after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to transportation issues since the fall and are not expected to change much in the coming weeks. The region needs a more active weather pattern.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain continues in central Brazil, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates for the rest of February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning for the coming corn crop if the rains aren't consistently heavier over the next two months. Long-range forecasts continue to show below-normal rainfall for central Brazil.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought some heavier rainfall to some of the driest areas of the country on Wednesday, but few areas saw more than an inch. The front will continue showers as it moves north on Friday, but with more limited precipitation in the forecast. However, the weather pattern is getting more active and a couple of waves of showers are possible next week that could bring more much-needed rainfall. Crop conditions fell again on Thursday's report, but the trend may start to reverse if the rain manifests as forecast for the rest of this month.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues through next week, though not as much is forecast in the northeast. Still, the situation is very favorable for winter crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Very cold air earlier this week has renewed thoughts of winterkill on winter wheat. Another brief cold shot will move through early next week. Despite the cold, systems are becoming more frequent and starting to ease some deficits. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and the coming precipitation should be helpful before the wheat awakens from dormancy in another month or two.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): The overall trend has been drier for cotton and sorghum despite some recent spotty rain. However, scattered showers are forecast for New South Wales this weekend and it's possible that more showers will develop in the east later next week with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone 20S. However, the drier trend has been long and will need a lot of moisture to reverse. Crop conditions are still overall poor for cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some more showers occurred on Thursday, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months. Shower chances are more frequent, but with low amounts for the next week or two.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered snow. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, well above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

East: Scattered snow through Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday, north Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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