DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with a trough in the Southeast. Another trough is in northern Canada and it will send a piece of energy through eastern Canada and the Northeast this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western ridge will spread eastward behind it next week, and a trough will take over the West, a better setup for bigger storms for mid-February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but disagree on the development of systems for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warmer air will spread through the country next week, but will be milder on the West Coast. This will open the door for systems to move across the country, which may be larger storm systems, but models are trying to work out the details. One early next week across the north and late week across the central and south look most likely right now.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...92 AT SANTEE, CA

LOW WED...21 BELOW ZERO AT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF COVINGTON, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...BATON ROUGE, LA 0.66 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West and Central with a trough in the Southeast.

Another trough is in northern Canada and it will send a piece of energy through eastern Canada and the Northeast this weekend. But the western ridge will spread eastward behind it next week, and a trough will take over the West, a better setup for bigger storms for mid-February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but disagree on the development of systems for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warmer air will spread through the country next week, but will be milder on the West Coast. This will open the door for systems to move across the country, which may be larger storm systems, but models are trying to work out the details. One early next week across the north and late week across the central and south look most likely right now.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Warmer air is forecast through next week.

There are a couple of chances for some precipitation in the near future, but nothing that looks particularly heavy as of right now. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting with a system moving through Tuesday and Wednesday that continues through the rest of the month. The region will take all the precipitation it can get, even if it comes as snow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Above-normal temperatures have melted the remaining snow this week and will stick around through next week. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for a while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms starting later next week, but they may have a tendency to move through the region without producing much precipitation, gathering strength as they move east. The impact now is unknown.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures have been trying to rise this week, but eastern areas continue to see below-normal temperatures. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes with snow on Thursday and Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer. The warmer air will win out next week, and will open the door for a few larger storm systems for mid-February. That should help some of the drought situation.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Rising temperatures are helping to break ice up on the rivers and melt the remaining snow and ice in the region. Water levels are dropping again, though, after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to transportation issues since the fall and are not expected to change much in the coming weeks. The region needs a more active weather pattern. That may start up later next week, but it needs to last a while.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain continues in central Brazil, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning for the coming corn crop if the rains aren't consistently heavier over the next two months.

Long-range forecasts continue to show below-normal rainfall for central Brazil.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front did bring some heavier rainfall to some of the driest areas of the country on Wednesday, but few areas saw more than an inch. The front will continue showers as it moves north for Thursday and Friday, but with more limited precipitation in the forecast. However, the weather pattern is getting more active and a couple of waves of showers are possible next week that could bring more much-needed rainfall. Crop conditions may fall on today's crop report due out this afternoon, but the trend may start to reverse if the rain manifests as forecast for the rest of this month.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues through next week, though not as much will fall in the northeast. Still, the situation is very favorable for winter crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Very cold air earlier this week has renewed thoughts of winterkill on winter wheat. Another brief cold shot will move through early next week. Despite the cold, systems are becoming more frequent and starting to ease some deficits. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and the coming precipitation should be helpful before the wheat awakens from dormancy in another month or two.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): The overall trend has been drier for cotton and sorghum despite some recent spotty rain. However, scattered showers are forecast for New South Wales this weekend and it's possible that more showers will develop in the east late next week. However, the drier trend has been long and will need a lot of moisture to reverse. Crop conditions are still overall poor for cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some more showers will be possible over the next couple of days, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, well above normal Sunday-Monday.

East: Scattered snow through Saturday. Isolated snow Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to well above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Spotty showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday, north Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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