DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with several disturbances in the Central and East. Another trough is in northern Canada and it will send a piece of energy through eastern Canada and the Northeast this weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western ridge will spread eastward next week, and a trough will take over the West, a better setup for bigger storms for mid-February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but disagree on the development of systems for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warmer air in the West and Central this weekend will spread through the East next week. In doing so, it will open the door for systems to move across the country, which may be larger storm systems, but models are trying to work out the details. One early next week across the north and late week across the south look most likely right now.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...89 AT 4 MILES EAST OF NORTH SHORE, CA AND INDIO, CA

LOW TUE...29 BELOW ZERO AT 31 MILES NORTHEAST OF FOREST CENTER, MN

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...JUNEAU, AK 0.72 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the West with several disturbances in the Central and East. Another trough is in northern Canada and it will send a piece of energy through eastern Canada and the Northeast this weekend. But the western ridge will spread eastward behind it, and a trough will take over the West, a better setup for bigger storms for mid-February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but disagree on the development of systems for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

Warmer air in the West and Central this weekend will spread through the East next week. In doing so, it will open the door for systems to move across the country, which may be larger storm systems, but models are trying to work out the details. One early next week across the north and late week across the south look most likely right now.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Warmer air is forecast through next week. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation, but nothing that looks particularly heavy as of right now. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Relatively warm temperatures this week should melt the remaining snow in the region. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for at least a little while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February, and may start later next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Southern areas saw a streak of snow on Tuesday. Temperatures will try to rise this week, but eastern areas are not likely to see above-normal readings. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes with snow on Thursday and Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer. The warmer air will win out next week, and will open the door for a few larger storm systems for mid-February.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): Ice moving through the river systems are creating some issues for transportation. Rising temperatures are helping to break things up and melt any snow or ice in the region. Water levels are dropping again after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to transportation issues since the fall and are not expected to change much in the coming weeks. The region needs a more active weather pattern, but that may start up later next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain continues in central Brazil, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning for the coming corn crop if the rains aren't consistently heavier over the next two months.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dryness concerns continue to mount, especially across the central and south. However, a front will move into southern areas on Wednesday and produce some showers through Friday, which will be somewhat helpful. The weather pattern for February indeed looks more active, which could be helpful depending on how rain develops. If the rains fail to be widespread or heavy, crop conditions will continue to fall and later-planted crops will feel the stress after a very dry January.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues this week, though areas in the northeast have been drier lately. Still, the situation is very favorable for winter crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Very cold air this week has renewed thoughts of winterkill on winter wheat, but will push eastward by the weekend. Despite the cold, systems moving through could add some beneficial precipitation and snow cover this week and next. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): The overall trend continues to be drier for cotton and sorghum areas despite some recent spotty rain. Some showers may develop in New South Wales this weekend, but probably will not be enough to reverse the drier trend for cotton and sorghum.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some more showers will be possible over the next couple of days, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated snow. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Sunday.

East: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered snow Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday, north Sunday.

Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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