DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

Ridges in the West and Canada are not strong and will allow plenty of disturbances to move through North America for the rest of the week. A bigger trough will redevelop over eastern Canada late this week but will not last long and be replaced by another ridge next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western ridge will slide eastward next week and a trough will take over the West, a better setup for bigger storms for mid-February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but disagree on the development of systems for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A shot of cold air will move through the Eastern U.S. this weekend into early next week, but warmer air in the West will spread through more of the country.

A couple of systems will also be possible and models are trying to figure out those details on whether or not they have any real impact. One midweek across the north and another late week across the south is the most likely scenario.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...84 AT PALM SPRINGS, CA, OCOTILLO WELLS, CA, AND 2 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF MARTINEZ LAKE, CA

LOW MON...23 BELOW ZERO AT 2 MILES NORTH OF OLD FORGE, NY

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...SAN JUAN, PR 0.38 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

Ridges in the West and Canada are not strong and will allow plenty of disturbances to move through North America for the rest of the week. A bigger trough will redevelop over eastern Canada late this week but will not last long and be replaced by another ridge next week. The western ridge will slide eastward next week and a trough will take over the West, a better setup for bigger storms for mid-February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but disagree on the development of systems for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A shot of cold air will move through the Eastern U.S. this weekend into early next week, but warmer air in the West will spread through more of the country.

A couple of systems will also be possible and models are trying to figure out those details on whether or not they have any real impact. One midweek across the north and another late week across the south is the most likely scenario.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Warmer air will stick around all week and is forecast for next week, too. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation, but nothing that looks particularly heavy as of right now. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air was pushed out of the region over the weekend. Relatively warm temperatures this week should melt the remaining snow. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for at least a little while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Southern areas will see a streak of snow on Tuesday. Temperatures will try to rise this week, but eastern areas are not likely to see above-normal readings. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer. The warmer air is likely to win out next week, however.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): It was dry over the weekend, but very cold. Ice moving through the river systems are creating some issues for transportation. A system will move through on Tuesday with scattered showers, but precipitation appears to be lighter until at least next week. Water levels should drop again after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to transportation issues of their own.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain fell in central Brazil over the weekend and continues this week, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning if the rains aren't consistently heavier over the next two months.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dryness concerns continue to mount, especially across the central and south. However, a front will move into southern areas on Wednesday and produce some showers through Friday, which will be somewhat helpful. The weather pattern for February indeed looks more active, which could be helpful depending on how rain develops. If the rain fails, crop conditions will continue to fall and later-planted crops will feel the stress after a very dry January.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time now and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues this week, though areas in the northeast have been drier lately. Still, the situation is very favorable for winter crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Very cold air moved back into the region over the weekend and will take several days to push eastward this week. The cold has renewed thoughts of winterkill on winter wheat. Despite the cold, systems moving through could add some beneficial precipitation and snow cover this week and next. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Spotty showers fell in eastern areas over the weekend, but the overall trend continues to be drier for cotton and sorghum areas. Some showers may develop later this week as well, though heat will be a problem if the showers do not materialize in a meaningful way.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some more showers will be possible later this week, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated snow. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered snow Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated snow Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above to well above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above to well above normal Thursday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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