DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough moving off the East Coast with ridges in the West and Canada.

The ridges will allow plenty of disturbances to move through North America throughout the week. A bigger trough will redevelop over eastern Canada late this week but will not last long and be replaced by another ridge next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western ridge will slide eastward next week and a trough will take over the West, a better setup for bigger storms for mid-February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but disagree on the development of systems for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A shot of cold air will move through the Eastern U.S. this weekend into early next week, but warmer air in the West will spread through more of the country.

A couple of systems will also be possible and models are trying to figure out those details on whether or not they have any real impact.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...92 AT ESCONDIDO, CA

LOW SUN...26 BELOW ZERO AT 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF LANCASTER, NH

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...SEATTLE, WA 0.43 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is trough moving off the East Coast with ridges in the West and Canada.

The ridges will allow plenty of disturbances to move through North America throughout the week. A bigger trough will redevelop over eastern Canada late this week but will not last long and be replaced by another ridge next week.

The western ridge will slide eastward next week and a trough will take over the West, a better setup for bigger storms for mid-February.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar for this week, but disagree on the development of systems for next week. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A shot of cold air will move through the Eastern U.S. this weekend into early next week, but warmer air in the West will spread through more of the country.

A couple of systems will also be possible, and models are trying to figure out those details on whether or not they have any real impact.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT): Some light snow and mix moved through the region over the weekend, but also ushered in some warmer air that should stick around all week. There are a couple of chances for some precipitation, but nothing that looks particularly heavy. Snow cover remains low for this time of year and precipitation deficits are slowly building ahead of spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air was pushed out of the region over the weekend. Relatively warm temperatures this week should melt the remaining snow. Soil moisture maps are not particularly promising though, and many dry and drought spots exist. Though the threat for cold is over for at least a little while, dryness and drought may threaten wheat going into spring. There is some potential for bigger storms in mid-February though.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT): Another round of cold air moved through this weekend while a clipper moved through with some snow. Some areas of snow may last for Monday and Tuesday as well. Temperatures will try to rise this week, but eastern areas are not likely to see above-normal readings. A larger clipper will move through the Great Lakes and Northeast on Friday, which will bring another round of some really cold air to the east while western areas will be warmer.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (RIVER TRANSPORTATION): It was dry over the weekend, but very cold. Ice moving through the river systems are creating some issues for transportation. A system will move through on Tuesday with scattered showers, but precipitation appears to be lighter until at least next week. Water levels should drop again after bouncing upward late last week and weekend. The continual bouncing off of low water levels has led to issues of their own.

BRAZIL (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain fell in central Brazil over the weekend, which still favors some late-developing soybeans. However, harvest is increasing and the switch over to safrinha corn accelerates in February. Overall soil moisture is still low for this time of year, which may be concerning if the rains aren't consistently heavier over the next two months.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system missed most of the agricultural land over the weekend as dryness concerns continue to mount, especially across the central and south. However, a front will move into southern areas later this week and is forecast to largely stall. Systems moving through then could produce some heavier and much-needed rainfall. If the rain fails, crop conditions will continue to fall and later-planted crops will feel the stress after a very dry January.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT): Europe has been in an active weather pattern for a long time now and the frequent precipitation has favored winter wheat in almost all areas of the continent. The active weather pattern continues this week, though areas in the northeast have been drier lately. Still, the situation is very favorable for winter crops, a condition that extends south into northern Africa for the first time in years as well.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT): Very cold air moved back into the region over the weekend and will take several days to push eastward this week. The cold has renewed thoughts of winterkill on winter wheat. Despite the cold, systems moving through could add some beneficial precipitation and snow cover this week and next. Wheat went into dormancy in mixed condition and will need more precipitation before the wheat awakens from dormancy in the spring.

AUSTRALIA (COTTON/SORGHUM): Spotty showers fell in eastern areas over the weekend, but the overall trend continues to be drier for cotton and sorghum areas. Some showers may develop later this week as well, though heat will be a problem if the showers do not materialize in a meaningful way.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Winter wheat and canola are in dormancy in largely good condition, but precipitation has been limited over the last couple of months. Some more showers will be possible later this week, but the region will need much more before wheat and canola awaken from dormancy in the next couple of months.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered snow. Temperatures near to well below normal

East: Isolated snow. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated snow Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures variable through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Scattered snow Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated snow north. Temperatures near to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday, especially north. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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